Small Craft Advisory 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
SOME OF THE SMALLER FEATURES...BUT THE LARGER PATTERN IS STILL
AGREED UPON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD TROUGH STRETCHES FROM EASTERN SIBERIA THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS. JET STREAM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA...ENTERING THE
WESTERN PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN...SKIRTING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AT ABOUT 45 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN DIVING
SOUTHEAST AND ENTERING NORTH AMERICA IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SEVERAL
LOWS DRIVEN BY THE JET...ONE OF THESE IS CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH
A THIRD SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE KURIL ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MORE SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE MAIN JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.

OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR EAST
AND THE JET STREAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN SHOWERY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 11