Small Craft Advisory 224, NWS Anchorage, AK

057 
FZAK51 PAFC 271137
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280300-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 997 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR CORDOVA THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. 

$$

PKZ120-280300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-280300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-280300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-280300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-280300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-280300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-280300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-280300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-280300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
SOME OF THE SMALLER FEATURES...BUT THE LARGER PATTERN IS STILL
AGREED UPON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD TROUGH STRETCHES FROM EASTERN SIBERIA THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS. JET STREAM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA...ENTERING THE
WESTERN PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN...SKIRTING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AT ABOUT 45 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN DIVING
SOUTHEAST AND ENTERING NORTH AMERICA IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SEVERAL
LOWS DRIVEN BY THE JET...ONE OF THESE IS CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH
A THIRD SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE KURIL ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MORE SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE MAIN JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.

OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR EAST
AND THE JET STREAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN SHOWERY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 11