Small Craft Advisory 214, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS NAM AND EC ALL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
SURFACE WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. ALL MODELS HAVE A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL BERING WHICH BY TUE AFTERNOON IS NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND...SOME VARIANCE IN ACTUAL TRACK BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CENTER MOVING NW.
ALL MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND TUE EVENING
WHICH THEN MOVES OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS AS IT WEAKENS ON WED NIGHT.A
WEAK NORTH PAC LOW GRAZES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED
AFTERNOON BUT MINIMAL IMPACT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS ARE MOVING NE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AOR. LOOKS AS IF FRONT THAT MOVES ONSHORE IN
SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN
WEST OF 155W.  MODERATE STRONG ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS BUT PRIMARY FORCING SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS LATER IN THE WEEK.  FRONT IN NORTHWEST
GULF WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING SEA REGION...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MODERATE
WEST WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOUTHWEST...CONTINUED SNOW AND RAIN AS NEXT FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TUE
MORNING...HENCE LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.  CONDITIONS IMPROVING ON
WED.

SOUTHCENTRAL...MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN FRONT SLOWING DOWNING ONCE
IT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF ON TUE EVENING. SNOW AND RAIN ON TAP FOR
KODIAK WITH SOME PRECIP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING TUE
MORNING.  BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR INLAND AREAS BEGINNING EARLY WED
AS LOW CENTER MOVES FROM KODIAK OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS. EXPECT
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MID DAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK IS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT TRAVELS EASTWARD ALONG 51N AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF. MINIMAL IMPACT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A WEEK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIP FOR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY. NEXT SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM IS PROGED TO MOVE NEAR 50N 175W THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOOKS AS IT MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD BE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE... GALES 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP MAR 11