Small Craft Advisory 208, NWS Anchorage, AK

767 
FZAK51 PAFC 201203
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY.
A 1003 MB LOW FORMS 30 NM EAST OF KODIAK THIS EVENING AND
MOVES TO 120 NM EAST OF KODIAK MON AFTERNOON AT 1001 MB.

$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 6
FT...BUILDING TO 10 FT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
BERING SEA FOR DAYS IS BECOMING A DISTANT MEMORY AS IT WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AND DRIFTS NORTH INTO SIBERIA. HOWEVER THIS LULL IN ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AND FAST-MOVING
979 MB LOW IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN BERING SEA FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THIS LOW IS DRAWING ENERGY FROM A 175 KT JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. AHEAD OF THIS LOW
IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT IS MAKING FOR A PLEASANT MORNING OVER
VIRTUALLY ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF
THIS LOW THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ARE ALSO CLOSELY ALIGNED.
NEVERTHELESS THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN REGARDING HOW
QUICKLY THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN AND THEN NORTHERN BERING SEA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EC AND NAM ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...WHICH IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN LARGELY
EXCLUDED FROM THE MORNING FORECAST. OVERALL MODEL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST DOMAIN IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WHILE THIS
LOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE LOW EARLIER THIS WEEK...IT IS COMING INTO
CLOSER CONTACT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS RESIDED OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE LAST 3 WEEKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN
THESE AREAS IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WINDS
ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE. WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN DUTCH
HARBOR AND COLD BAY BEGINNING BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BECAUSE THIS LOW IS MOVING SO FAST...WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE CHANGING QUICKLY ESPECIALLY AROUND DUTCH
HARBOR...WHERE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY
EQUALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

FURTHER NORTH...COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THE HIGH WINDS...THOUGH INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL STILL SEE
STRONG GUSTS THAT LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO BE LIMITED TO THE COAST. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SUNNY SKIES TODAY
REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
KODIAK ISLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING...MIXING WITH SNOW AND SPREADING TO
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL ON TRACK TO
TAKE HOLD OF MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER MAY BE CONFINED TO
THE BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE DOMAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 155 170
         STORM WARNING 150 160 165 171 172
         GALE WARNING 175 176 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD MAR 11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA                53.93N 166.51W
03/19/2011  M115 MPH                            AK   ASOS

            MEASURED AT THE DUTCH HARBOR ASOS STATION. WIND GUSTS
            ABOVE 75MPH SINCE 1145AM.

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     UNALASKA                53.93N 166.51W
03/19/2011  M99.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            MEASURED AT THE DUTCH HARBOR HANDAR SITE. WINDS ABOVE
            75MPH SINCE 1200PM.

&&

KS