Gale Warning 290, NWS Anchorage, AK

801 
FZAK51 PAFC 202318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES MON NIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW FORMS 50 NM
NORTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY THIS EVENING AND MOVES TO 80 NM EAST OF
KODIAK CITY MON AFTERNOON AT 1002 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING.
$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 10 KT EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND IN
THE EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS A 964 MB LOW CENTERED
JUST NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THAT IS BRINGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
OF UP TO 100 MPH TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...WHERE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 80 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON THE INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A TIGHTLY WOUND CIRCULAR CLOUD
SHIELD ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AND A POTENT FRONT
PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN AKPEN. THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT THE EDGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY TOMORROW AS
IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE JET.

THE WEATHER IS CALM ACROSS THE REST OF THE AOR WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING CLOUDS
OVER FAR EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN LOW ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COOK INLET REGIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIG WEATHER STORY OF THE DAY IS THE STRONG
LOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE VALID IN THESE AREAS WITH STRONGEST
WINDS FORECAST IN THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AS
IT HEADS INTO THE EASTERN BERING OVERNIGHT BUT THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL SEE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH IT...THOUGH LESS
THAN WARNING LEVELS.
THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN LATE TONIGHT IS IN THE PRIBILOF ISLAND AREA
AFTER THE LOW PASSES BY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION
KEEPING OR TURNING ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. WITH SNOW AND WINDS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THERE COULD BE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE MORE
INCLINED TO NOT FORECAST CONDITIONS QUITE TO BLIZZARD DUE TO WARMER
DAYS RECENTLY THAT HAVE MELTED THE TOP LAYER OF GROUND WHICH WILL
MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO BLOW AT THE ONSET OF THE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY FAST
MOVING SO THE TIME THEY ARE AT RISK IS SHORT AS WELL. THIS SITUATION
SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THAT
AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL ON TRACK TO
TAKE HOLD OF MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER MAY BE CONFINED TO
THE BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE DOMAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 140 141 175 176 179 180.
         STORM 150 160 171.
         HURRICANE FORCE 170 172 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 11