Small Craft Advisory 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

626 
FZAK51 PAFC 162309
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171600-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 MB LOW 80 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WEAKENS TO 1008 MB THU
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AND THEN
DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ120-171600-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171600-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171600-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171600-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171600-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E WIND 15 KT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171600-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171600-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171600-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171600-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

344 
FZAK51 PAFC 171159
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180400-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY DRIFTS SOUTH AND
DISSIPATES THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND
PERSISTS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-180400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-180400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-180400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH ITS INFLUENCED ON
THE SURROUNDING AREA HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS HAVE SET UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE HIGH...ONE NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ONE NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOVEMENT...AND THEN ANOTHER JUST WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVING
EASTWARD.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS A SOLID
AREA OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN
GAP WINDS CONTINUE IN THE USUAL PLACES. THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND LIMIT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TO FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW. KODIAK ISLAND ON THE OTHER HAND IS RIGHT IN THE PATH OF THE
LOW SO EXPECT STEADY SNOW TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUT WEST A SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH JUST A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONS OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS ALSO VERY GOOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE GULF LOW APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOW WILL
INTENSIFY. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A BLIZZARD BUT THERE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WITH STEADY SNOW ALL NIGHT WILL INCREASE
SNOW AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK WHICH SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY COME VERY CLOSE TO THE 6 INCH ADVISORY
THRESHOLD TONIGHT. THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN
RIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...SO PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HELP PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ONSHORE. THUS...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW
ALONG COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. IF IT DOES SNOW EXPECT IT WILL
BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE COME CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...UPPER LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL TRACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA WHILE THE LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF
THE ALEUTIANS TRACKS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.
THE BIG STORY THOUGH IS THE MAJOR LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE BERING BY FRIDAY.
THE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HUGE WITH A ROUGH APPROXIMATED
AREA OF INFLUENCE OF 2500 MILES NORTH TO SOUTH AND 2500 MILES
EAST TO WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SOUTH TO WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL OCCUR WHEN THE LOW IS STILL OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC...SO DO NOT EXPECT WARNING LEVEL WINDS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT STORM FORCE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
CREATING A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE...AND THUS ON WHETHER THE FRONT EVER
MAKES IT ANY FURTHER THAN SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEFORE FALLING APART.
THERE IS EVEN LARGER DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH HANDLING
OF NEXT LOW MOVING UP FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTTOM
LINE THOUGH...THIS MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK TO MAINLAND ALASKA SOMETIME LATE
THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175 176.
         GALE WARNING...172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11