Brisk Wind Advisory 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

284 
FZAK52 PAFC 162312
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A LARGE 943 MB LOW 620 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA INTENSIFIES TO 939 MB
TONIGHT 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AND THEN WEAKENS TO 960 MB 230 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND
20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 10 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT PORT MOLLER EAST IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
UNALASKA E...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO S 45 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO
26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 32 FT BUILDING TO 41 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 39 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SE 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT BERING SIDE...41 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH ITS INFLUENCED ON
THE SURROUNDING AREA HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS HAVE SET UP SHOP SOUTH OF THE HIGH...ONE NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ONE NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOVEMENT...AND THEN ANOTHER JUST WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVING
EASTWARD.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS A SOLID
AREA OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVEN
GAP WINDS CONTINUE IN THE USUAL PLACES. THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND LIMIT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TO FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW. KODIAK ISLAND ON THE OTHER HAND IS RIGHT IN THE PATH OF THE
LOW SO EXPECT STEADY SNOW TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUT WEST A SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH JUST A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONS OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS ALSO VERY GOOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE GULF LOW APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOW WILL
INTENSIFY. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A BLIZZARD BUT THERE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WITH STEADY SNOW ALL NIGHT WILL INCREASE
SNOW AMOUNTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK WHICH SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY COME VERY CLOSE TO THE 6 INCH ADVISORY
THRESHOLD TONIGHT. THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN
RIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...SO PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HELP PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ONSHORE. THUS...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW
ALONG COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. IF IT DOES SNOW EXPECT IT WILL
BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE COME CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...UPPER LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL TRACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA WHILE THE LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF
THE ALEUTIANS TRACKS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.
THE BIG STORY THOUGH IS THE MAJOR LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE BERING BY FRIDAY.
THE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HUGE WITH A ROUGH APPROXIMATED
AREA OF INFLUENCE OF 2500 MILES NORTH TO SOUTH AND 2500 MILES
EAST TO WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SOUTH TO WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL OCCUR WHEN THE LOW IS STILL OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC...SO DO NOT EXPECT WARNING LEVEL WINDS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT STORM FORCE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MERGE
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
CREATING A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE...AND THUS ON WHETHER THE FRONT EVER
MAKES IT ANY FURTHER THAN SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEFORE FALLING APART.
THERE IS EVEN LARGER DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH HANDLING
OF NEXT LOW MOVING UP FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTTOM
LINE THOUGH...THIS MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK TO MAINLAND ALASKA SOMETIME LATE
THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175 176.
         GALE WARNING...172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11