Small Craft Advisory 191, NWS Anchorage, AK

343 
FZAK51 PAFC 130035
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ120-131500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-131500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.  
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-131500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-131500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-131500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...BARREN ISLANDS W...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT BY
LATE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. ELSEWHERE...NE WIND 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-131500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-131500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-131500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-131500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER-HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT CONTINUES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE AOR. OVER THE GULF AN OPEN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
CLOSE BACK INTO A BROAD UPPER-LOW...AND DRIFTING WEST. OUT WEST AN
OLD UPPER-LOW IS FILLING OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PRESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR AND FILLING AS IT ROTATES SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ACCEPTABLY CAPTURE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE
MID-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED BY MID NEXT WEEK FOR
IT'S MORE CONSISTENT DEPICTION OF THE RESIDUAL UPPER-LOW IN THE GULF
ROTATING WEST TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. HPC GUIDANCE WAS LEANED ON IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POOR MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISETENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL BEGIN DRIFTING WEST...ONCE
AGAIN SLIGHTLY SQUEEZING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO RESULT THROUGH FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. MOISTURE
PINWHEELING AROUND THE GULF TO ALSO BRUSH KODIAK ISLAND WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT SUNNY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER TO BE FEATURED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA AND BRISTOL
BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL DUE TO THE PREDOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
EXPECT SOME PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR...ENHANCED AT TIMES OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A STORM-FORCE LOW OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE CHAIN ON SUNDAY WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS. THE
NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WESTERN CHAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH A STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE IN QUESTION DUE TO POOR-RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE DOMINANT UPPER-RIDGE
OVER NW AK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN SOME FASHION...THIS SYSTEM WOULD
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLAND ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM MAR 11