Small Craft Advisory 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

471 
FZAK51 PAFC 120207 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
510 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

CORRECT ZONE 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH SUN AS A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH SUN.
$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...MIDDLETON ISLAND W...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY
LATE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

005 
FZAK51 PAFC 121219
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN EARLY SAT EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON.
$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 F00T. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 12 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1140 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE BERING STRAIT. OTHER THAN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
GAP WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CALM ACROSS THE
MAINLAND. DOWN OVER THE GULF THERE ARE A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVES PRODUCING AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH A 970S MB LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THIS LOW WAS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD BUT HAS NOW STALLED
DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT EASTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN
SOON AS LOW GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW OF UPPER JET JUST
TO THE SOUTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BLOCKING HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SHORT-WAVES DROP DOWN OUT OF THE
ARCTIC ALONG ITS EAST SIDE. THE MORE NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THIS
IS THAT THESE SHORT-WAVES COMING FROM THE NORTH WILL INTERACT
WITH ENERGY OVER THE GULF TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE BERING
SEA...LIKELY FORMING AN UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING ON MONDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST STEP IN WHAT WILL BE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT
AT WEEK'S END.

WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN
INCREASE IN GAP WINDS ONCE AGAIN. DON'T EXPECT THESE WINDS TO BE
AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SOME WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...DOWN OVER THE GULF EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
MOVE BACK TO KODIAK ISLAND AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE BERING TONIGHT AND HELP TO PUSH THE LOW
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS OFF TO THE SOUTH. THE NEXT MAJOR PACIFIC STORM
WILL THEN TRACK MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...SO THAT ONLY
IMPACTS WILL BE A BIT OF WIND AND A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE STORM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ASIA TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AT THE SAME
TIME MODELS SHOW BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS WEAKENING IS SLOWER IN LATEST MODELS
THAN IT HAS BEEN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE IN QUESTION DUE TO
POOR-RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THEN...ASSUMING THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLAND ALASKA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11