Small Craft Advisory 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

811 
FZAK51 PAFC 110044 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

CORRECTED AREA 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT.
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 
7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

224 
FZAK51 PAFC 110500 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

UPDATED AREA 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT.
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
800 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1
FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 
7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

347 
FZAK51 PAFC 111225
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF AK THROUGH SUN AND THEN WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN.
$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1145 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PARKED OVER
THE BERING STRAIT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK OR NEUTRAL
BUT ARCTIC AIR WHICH ENTERED THE COPPER BASIN ON WEDNESDAY IS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. ADD THIS
TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND YOU GET STRONG
GAP WINDS WHICH ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS/VALDEZ AREA WITH WEAKER GAP FLOW THROUGH
OTHER COASTAL VALLEYS.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA AND A 175 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ADAK
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE UPPER SUPPORT SO DON'T EXPECT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING DOWN ALONG THE JET AND THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION...BUT THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FOR THIS SOLUTION WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ARE ALL GROUPED
TOGETHER FURTHER SOUTH WILL NEED TO LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER CENTRAL PRESSURE...SO
PLAN TO INCREASE WINDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO EASTERN RUSSIA BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW ENERGY OVER THE GULF/NORTHEAST PACIFIC
TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. AT WORST THIS COULD BRING
SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE GULF COAST AS WELL AS
BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SUNNY SKIES AND OCCASIONAL GAP WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BUT WILL STOPPED
BY THE UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE BERING SEA. WITHOUT ACCESS TO THE
BERING SEA THE UPPER JET WILL STEER THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT COUPLE SYSTEMS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS RESULTING IN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH MONDAY AND DEVELOPING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO
THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BERING AND OPEN
UP ACCESS TO STORMS EXITING ASIA. ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
IS POOR...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A SINGLE DEEP
LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING THURSDAY AND AFFECTING MAINLAND BY NEXT
WEEKEND. UNTIL THIS CHANGE OCCURS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...172.
         GALE WARNING...170 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11