Gale Warning 247, NWS Anchorage, AK

128 
FZAK62 PAFC 120032
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121500-
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB LOW NEAR 50N 174W WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
49N 168W SAT MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
$$

PKZ411-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE
EDGE. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE ICE EDGE. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1145 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PARKED OVER
THE BERING STRAIT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK OR NEUTRAL
BUT ARCTIC AIR WHICH ENTERED THE COPPER BASIN ON WEDNESDAY IS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. ADD THIS
TO A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND YOU GET STRONG
GAP WINDS WHICH ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS/VALDEZ AREA WITH WEAKER GAP FLOW THROUGH
OTHER COASTAL VALLEYS.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA AND A 175 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF ADAK
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE UPPER SUPPORT SO DON'T EXPECT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING DOWN ALONG THE JET AND THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION...BUT THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FOR THIS SOLUTION WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ARE ALL GROUPED
TOGETHER FURTHER SOUTH WILL NEED TO LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER CENTRAL PRESSURE...SO
PLAN TO INCREASE WINDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO EASTERN RUSSIA BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW ENERGY OVER THE GULF/NORTHEAST PACIFIC
TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. AT WORST THIS COULD BRING
SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE GULF COAST AS WELL AS
BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH...
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF SUNNY SKIES AND OCCASIONAL GAP WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BUT WILL STOPPED
BY THE UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE BERING SEA. WITHOUT ACCESS TO THE
BERING SEA THE UPPER JET WILL STEER THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT COUPLE SYSTEMS WILL THEN REMAIN WELL SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS RESULTING IN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE A SHORT-WAVE
DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH MONDAY AND DEVELOPING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO
THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BERING AND OPEN
UP ACCESS TO STORMS EXITING ASIA. ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
IS POOR...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A SINGLE DEEP
LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING THURSDAY AND AFFECTING MAINLAND BY NEXT
WEEKEND. UNTIL THIS CHANGE OCCURS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...172.
         GALE WARNING...170 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11