Small Craft Advisory 185, NWS Anchorage, AK

777 
FZAK51 PAFC 101530 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
630 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

UPDATED ZONES 125 AND 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
630 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
630 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

358 
FZAK51 PAFC 110016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT.
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 
7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... 

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

CORRECTED TIME

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH THE LARGE BLOCKING HIGH NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH...ONE
CENTERED NEAR 145W 52N AND A SECOND JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES FLOWING SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO IMPACT WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING AND
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BLOCKING RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN IS VERY STABLE SO NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE MINOR PROBLEMS THAT ARISE INCLUDE
THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE GULF COAST A
BIT STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS POORLY
RESOLVED FEATURE. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL REFLECT STRONGER WINDS
AND MORE SHOWERS AROUND KODIAK. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS OUT WEST...A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE KAMCHATKA
LOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS BEEN QUITE DIFFERENT FROM RUN TO RUN. BASED ON
THE TRENDS...OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST
HANDLE SO WE WILL BE WEAKENING THIS WAVE AS WELL AS SPEEDING IT UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GAP WINDS HAVE AGAIN INCREASED AS A RESULT OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACCOMPANIED THE SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS THROUGH
THE NORMAL GAPS INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...COPPER RIVER
DELTA...AND THOMPSON PASS/VALDEZ AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT
IS NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST...FURTHER ENHANCING THE GAP WINDS.
PLACES LIKE ANCHORAGE AND KENAI SAW A BIT MORE WIND THAN FORECASTED
BECAUSE OF THE POOR RESOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.

THE OVERALL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING GAP WINDS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE GRADIENT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO DIMINISH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN BERING SEA...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT
A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO WESTERN
ALASKA...ENSURING MORE SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO
BE OUT WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. EASTERLY GALE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH AS THE FRONT SHEARS APART. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND RAPIDLY MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BEFORE MEETING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BEING DEFLECTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW
THE BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ABOUT THAT TIME...BUT STILL
HOLDING OFF ANY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE ALEUTIANS RIGHT ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...126 127 128 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 11