Gale Warning 245, NWS Anchorage, AK

384 
FZAK62 PAFC 110033
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111500-
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 51N 179W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING THU NIGHT. A 994 MB LOW NEAR 44N 178E WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES TO 50N 172W FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL 
THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ON SAT. 
$$

PKZ411-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 20 SOUTH OF 56N. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE
EDGE.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE ICE EDGE.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.  
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.  
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

CORRECTED TIME

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH THE LARGE BLOCKING HIGH NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH...ONE
CENTERED NEAR 145W 52N AND A SECOND JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES FLOWING SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO IMPACT WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING AND
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BLOCKING RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN IS VERY STABLE SO NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE MINOR PROBLEMS THAT ARISE INCLUDE
THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE GULF COAST A
BIT STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS POORLY
RESOLVED FEATURE. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL REFLECT STRONGER WINDS
AND MORE SHOWERS AROUND KODIAK. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS OUT WEST...A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE KAMCHATKA
LOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS BEEN QUITE DIFFERENT FROM RUN TO RUN. BASED ON
THE TRENDS...OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST
HANDLE SO WE WILL BE WEAKENING THIS WAVE AS WELL AS SPEEDING IT UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GAP WINDS HAVE AGAIN INCREASED AS A RESULT OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACCOMPANIED THE SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS THROUGH
THE NORMAL GAPS INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...COPPER RIVER
DELTA...AND THOMPSON PASS/VALDEZ AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT
IS NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST...FURTHER ENHANCING THE GAP WINDS.
PLACES LIKE ANCHORAGE AND KENAI SAW A BIT MORE WIND THAN FORECASTED
BECAUSE OF THE POOR RESOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.

THE OVERALL FLOW WILL NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING GAP WINDS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE GRADIENT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO ALSO DIMINISH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN BERING SEA...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT
A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO WESTERN
ALASKA...ENSURING MORE SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO
BE OUT WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. EASTERLY GALE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH AS THE FRONT SHEARS APART. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND RAPIDLY MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BEFORE MEETING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BEING DEFLECTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW
THE BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ABOUT THAT TIME...BUT STILL
HOLDING OFF ANY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE ALEUTIANS RIGHT ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...126 127 128 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 11