Small Craft Advisory 183, NWS Anchorage, AK

315 
FZAK51 PAFC 100047
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 


$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

730 
FZAK51 PAFC 101227
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE
IS PARKED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WITH CLOSED LOWS SOUTH OF THE
GULF AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY TIGHT
(SUCH AS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY). ASIDE FROM THESE WINDS
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA ARE QUITE BENIGN. CONDITIONS ARE
HEADED DOWNHILL ALONG THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A DEEP LOW
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 965 MB SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THIS LOW IS HEADED NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK
OF LOWS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO THE ALEUTIANS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY.
WILL TREND HEAVILY TOWARD THESE LATEST GROUPINGS...WHICH FOR SOME
MODELS ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREAS AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE YUKON TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE RESULTING IN COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...STRONGEST FROM THE COPPER BASIN TO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN AS A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR ALASKA AND CANADA.
THIS WILL ALL CULMINATE IN AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND FROM THOMPSON PASS DOWN INTO VALDEZ.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TO THURSDAY. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN BERING SEA...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT
A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO WESTERN
ALASKA...ENSURING MORE SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE UPPER CENTER
NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. INITIALLY THESE LOWS WILL CURVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS...BUT OVER TIME THE TROUGH WILL
DIG EASTWARD AND STORMS WILL TAKE MORE OF AN EAST-WEST TRACK
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MOST OF THE AFFECTS OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
AS THE BLOCKING HIGH KEEPS SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW
THE BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ABOUT THAT TIME...BUT STILL
HOLDING OFF ANY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE ALEUTIANS RIGHT ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 132 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11