Gale Warning 277, NWS Anchorage, AK

109 
FZAK52 PAFC 100034
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 973 MB LOW 250 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL DRIFT NEAR KAMCHATKA AT 978
MB THU NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL DISSIPATE
THU. A 993 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF ADAK THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 330
NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA AT 979 MB FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.  
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT.  
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.  
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...26 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
BERING SIDE...26 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT BERING SIDE...30 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE
IS PARKED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WITH CLOSED LOWS SOUTH OF THE
GULF AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS IT
MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY TIGHT
(SUCH AS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY). ASIDE FROM THESE WINDS
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA ARE QUITE BENIGN. CONDITIONS ARE
HEADED DOWNHILL ALONG THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A DEEP LOW
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 965 MB SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THIS LOW IS HEADED NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK
OF LOWS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO THE ALEUTIANS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY.
WILL TREND HEAVILY TOWARD THESE LATEST GROUPINGS...WHICH FOR SOME
MODELS ARE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREAS AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE YUKON TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE RESULTING IN COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...STRONGEST FROM THE COPPER BASIN TO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN AS A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR ALASKA AND CANADA.
THIS WILL ALL CULMINATE IN AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND FROM THOMPSON PASS DOWN INTO VALDEZ.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TO THURSDAY. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN BERING SEA...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT
A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO WESTERN
ALASKA...ENSURING MORE SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE UPPER CENTER
NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. INITIALLY THESE LOWS WILL CURVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS...BUT OVER TIME THE TROUGH WILL
DIG EASTWARD AND STORMS WILL TAKE MORE OF AN EAST-WEST TRACK
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MOST OF THE AFFECTS OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
AS THE BLOCKING HIGH KEEPS SYSTEMS FROM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW
THE BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ABOUT THAT TIME...BUT STILL
HOLDING OFF ANY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE ALEUTIANS RIGHT ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THESE SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...127 132 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11