Small Craft Advisory 179, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL HAS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND IS KEEPING MOST OF THE STATE
DRY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS HAS REACHED ITS FULL DEVELOPMENT AND WILL START TO DECLINE
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE, THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF CONTINUES
TO FEED BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO KODIAK ISLAND. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOW. A STRONG
LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS BROUGHT RAIN, SNOW AND
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER LOW
HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND IS STILL FORECAST TO
DRIFT TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND DOMINATE MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
WILL DISSIPATE WITH THEE UPPER LOW TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BECOME
STATIONARY 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK MONDAY. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SHOWERS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEW STORM DEVELOPING EAST OF JAPAN TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO
440 MILES WEST OF ATTU AND BRING GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL REMAIN THERE AND COVER
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHEASTERN BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
BERING, ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF. MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 170 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 11