Gale Warning 274, NWS Anchorage, AK

044 
FZAK51 PAFC 080000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MON NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

.TONIGHT...NE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL HAS A LARGE HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND IS KEEPING MOST OF THE STATE
DRY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS HAS REACHED ITS FULL DEVELOPMENT AND WILL START TO DECLINE
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE, THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF CONTINUES
TO FEED BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO KODIAK ISLAND. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOW. A STRONG
LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS BROUGHT RAIN, SNOW AND
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER LOW
HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND IS STILL FORECAST TO
DRIFT TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND DOMINATE MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
WILL DISSIPATE WITH THEE UPPER LOW TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BECOME
STATIONARY 300 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK MONDAY. BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SHOWERS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEW STORM DEVELOPING EAST OF JAPAN TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO
440 MILES WEST OF ATTU AND BRING GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL REMAIN THERE AND COVER
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHEASTERN BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
BERING, ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF. MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 170 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 11