Small Craft Advisory 162, NWS Anchorage, AK

809 
FZAK51 PAFC 030010
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRI. A 985 MB 
LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WED EVENING WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THU MORNING. A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 275 NM SOUTH OF SITKA AT 980 MB FRI.

$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 35 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED MAR 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

020 
FZAK51 PAFC 031251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRI. A 998 MB 
LOW 280 NM NORTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 
140 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AT 982 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF 
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL OVERALL. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMES A BROAD COMPLEX LOW. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE
SYSTEMS THE MODELS ALL TRY TO RESOLVE WHERE EACH INDIVIDUAL WEAK LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND THEY SELDOM AGREE UNTIL IT STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE.
THIS WILL IMPACT MOSTLY THE KODIAK AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
INVOLVED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE EMBEDDED LOWS...BUT DETAILS
ARE HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE WEATHER MAP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE STATE
TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE REMAIN DUE
NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE BUT HAVE DIMINISHED FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO. THE MAIN JET STREAM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST TIGHT AND THEREFORE KEEP
GUSTY WINDS IN THAT AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH THE PATTERN NOT CHANGING OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS THE WEATHER IS NOT CHANGING MUCH EITHER. THE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
TOMORROW. THAT WILL MEAN THE VALDEZ AREA AND THOMPSON PASS COULD
POSSIBLY GET BACK NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS. THE OTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS
WILL GET QUITE THAT HIGH BUT IT WILL HAVE TO LOOKED AT AND CONSIDERED
WHEN NEW MODEL PACKAGES ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA
BY THE WEEKEND AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO MOVE FURTHER
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ MAR 11