Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 86, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL OVERALL. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY AS A LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BECOMES A BROAD COMPLEX LOW. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE
SYSTEMS THE MODELS ALL TRY TO RESOLVE WHERE EACH INDIVIDUAL WEAK LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND THEY SELDOM AGREE UNTIL IT STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE.
THIS WILL IMPACT MOSTLY THE KODIAK AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
INVOLVED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE EMBEDDED LOWS...BUT DETAILS
ARE HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE WEATHER MAP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE STATE
TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE REMAIN DUE
NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE BUT HAVE DIMINISHED FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO. THE MAIN JET STREAM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST TIGHT AND THEREFORE KEEP
GUSTY WINDS IN THAT AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH THE PATTERN NOT CHANGING OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS THE WEATHER IS NOT CHANGING MUCH EITHER. THE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
TOMORROW. THAT WILL MEAN THE VALDEZ AREA AND THOMPSON PASS COULD
POSSIBLY GET BACK NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS. THE OTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS
WILL GET QUITE THAT HIGH BUT IT WILL HAVE TO LOOKED AT AND CONSIDERED
WHEN NEW MODEL PACKAGES ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL WEAKEN OVER THE BERING SEA
BY THE WEEKEND AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO MOVE FURTHER
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ MAR 11