Small Craft Advisory 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

281 
FZAK51 PAFC 100147 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
448 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

CORRECTED 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW FORMS 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THU AFTERNOON
AND MOVES TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON AT 982 MB.
$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

331 
FZAK51 PAFC 101235
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 991 MB LOW FORMS 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 25 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI
AFTERNOON AT 984 MB. A 988 MB LOW 550 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS
MORNING DEEPENS TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE COAST W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
OF THESE IS A QUICKLY MOVING FRONT TRACKING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL...WHICH IS HELPING TO EJECT A DECAYING SURFACE WEATHER
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM IS
LIKEWISE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY LESSENING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PUSHES THROUGH INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. OUT WEST...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IS
GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE
AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING ALONG WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW THAT IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVERALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ON THE
KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
DISSIPATING BERING SEA LOW AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. THUS THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST USED THE NAM FOR DETAIL OVER
LAND AND THE GFS OUT OVER THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND AS THE LOW MOVING UP COOK INLET HAS DISSIPATED AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST HAS WEAKENED. AREAS EAST OF
THE ALASKA RANGE ARE GENERALLY WARM BUT WILL DROP QUICKLY IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE COMING TO THE GULF REGION AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING THIS WEEK WILL SETTLE DOWN SOME THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE
STATE WITH A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA TO SEE CLEAR
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND
WILL ALSO SEE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 170 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11