Storm Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

906 
FZAK51 PAFC 110041
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB LOW 140 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 120 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 977 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT 0UT OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SE WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 10 FT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT 0UT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. RAIN
AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT 0UT OF
THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
STRONGER GUSTS 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NW 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS INCREASING TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS 50
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU FEB 10 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 9 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
OF THESE IS A QUICKLY MOVING FRONT TRACKING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL...WHICH IS HELPING TO EJECT A DECAYING SURFACE WEATHER
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM IS
LIKEWISE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY LESSENING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PUSHES THROUGH INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. OUT WEST...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IS
GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE
AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING ALONG WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW THAT IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVERALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ON THE
KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
DISSIPATING BERING SEA LOW AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. THUS THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST USED THE NAM FOR DETAIL OVER
LAND AND THE GFS OUT OVER THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND AS THE LOW MOVING UP COOK INLET HAS DISSIPATED AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST HAS WEAKENED. AREAS EAST OF
THE ALASKA RANGE ARE GENERALLY WARM BUT WILL DROP QUICKLY IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE COMING TO THE GULF REGION AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING THIS WEEK WILL SETTLE DOWN SOME THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE
STATE WITH A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA TO SEE CLEAR
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND
WILL ALSO SEE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 170 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11