High Wind Watch 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

185 
WWAK71 PAFC 030123
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
423 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

AKZ101-031545-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0035.111203T2100Z-111204T1800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0044.111203T2100Z-111204T2000Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
423 PM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 11 AM AKST
SUNDAY FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 11 AM AKST
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* LOCATION...TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

* WIND...55 TO 70 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 90 MPH THROUGH
  TURNAGAIN ARM. 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE
  ANCHORAGE BOWL.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK
  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND
  DAMAGE PROPERTY.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE ALCAN THIS
MORNING...WITH EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOWS WEST OF ATTU AND OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING. A STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ALCAN.
AT THE SURFACE...A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA WHILE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BERING AND WELL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER SE AK AND THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT AFTER THE VARIABILITY OF EARLIER
RUNS. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DISSIPATES THIS MORNING OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THE LOW SPINNING IN THE NORTHWEST BERING DISSIPATES
TONIGHT...WHILE THE LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
INTENSIFIES AND RACES NORTH TO THE BERING STRAIT BY SUN MORNING. A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AFFECTS THE AKPEN AND GULF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SAT AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE AK RANGE SAT INTO
SUN...AND A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AKPEN SAT AND THE
GULF COAST AND INLAND AREAS SUN INTO MON. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE
GFS AND NAM EARLY...AND THEN THE GFS AND HPC IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. GALES
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING INTO SUN AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
BRINGS SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON.

FOR SW AK...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AND THEN CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN
ISSUE THIS EVENING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA UNTIL SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SNOW...WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRIEF DRYING TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT FROM
THE BERING LOW WILL THEN BRING RAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...AND
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE IS NOT SCOURED OUT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN.
BY SUN AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AK RANGE FROM THE
WEST...AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL SNOW THROUGH MON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY TUE AS THE BERING FRONT
MOVES TO MAINLAND AK...AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WED. SW AK WILL
BE DRY ON TUE...BUT SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL BEGIN TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WED. SE OF THE AK RANGE WILL
BE DRY TUE INTO WED. SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP AND CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST WITH SNOW SHOWERS INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH 145 HIGH WIND WATCH 101
MARINE...STORMS 179 185
         GALES 120 125 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172  175 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 11