Gale Warning 912, NWS Anchorage, AK

222 
FZAK62 PAFC 020840 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1140 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

UPDATED ZONE 412

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 58N 178E WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. A 976 MB LOW NEAR 49N 177W FRI AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO 58N 172W AT 962 MB SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

549 
FZAK62 PAFC 021254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 MB LOW NEAR 57N 179E REMAINS STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES FRI
NIGHT. A 999 MB LOW NEAR 46N 179E INTENSIFIES TO 973 MB SAT EVENING
AS IT MOVES TO 62N 169W...AND THEN MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT.

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIG PICTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HAS
A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THAT FLATTENS AS IT
EXTENDS TO THE ALCAN BORDER. A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AND OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM FLOWS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE RIDGE PUSHING NORTHWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR THE
JET STREAM TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND BECOME ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN IS THE ONE THAT
BRINGS WARM WEATHER AND CHINOOK WINDS TO THE STATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS RANGE FROM DIFFERING ON SOME IMPORTANT
DETAILS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE TO BEING A BIT OF
A MESS IN THE BERING SEA. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE BERING SEA WILL BE
WITH THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SATURDAY. THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMF ALL HAVE
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING BUT THE STORM TRACK AND
INTENSITY IS VERY DIFFERENT ON ALL THREE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWED VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z
MODEL RUNS. THE 12Z NAM HAS BEEN A BIT OF A MIDDLE GROUND AND LOOKS
REASONABLE. THE 18Z NAM RUN SHOWS A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE FASTER ONE
USED BY THE 12Z GFS SO THE HOPE IS THESE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO LOCK ON
TO A GOOD SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PRECIPITATION FROM A DECAYING FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND BRING SOME MORE SNOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. WHILE SOUTH
CENTRAL HAS BEEN TEETERING ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE FOR THE
LAST DAY THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION SINCE THIS MORNING TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW LOOKS MUCH LESS
THAN IT DID WHEN LOOKING AT THAT TIME FRAME YESTERDAY. ONE OF THE
MAIN FEATURES IS TO HAVE COLD NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAT
KEEP IT BELOW FREEZING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT STREAMS OVER THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP THIS FROM HAPPENING. THEREFORE
IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
FREEZING RAIN BEING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BIG WARM UP AND MELTDOWN IN SOUTHERN ALASKA ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE RIGHT ON COURSE. EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO EAST WINDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALSO ON COURSE IS THE BIG COOL DOWN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. FOR AS WARM AS SATURDAY LOOKS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND MAKE TO TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AND COOL
THINGS DOWN AGAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 11