High Wind Watch 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

042 
WWAK71 PAFC 250337
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
737 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

AKZ101-250900-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0032.111025T0337Z-111025T0900Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
737 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT TUESDAY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* LOCATION...TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


* WIND...SOUTHEAST 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
  TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE 
  TO NEARBY STRUCTURES. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ125-251645-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0026.111025T1300Z-111026T0000Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
737 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM.

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM.

* WIND...EAST WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK 
  WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN 
  GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE 
  TO NEARBY STRUCTURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ135-251645-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0026.111025T1300Z-111026T0000Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
737 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH 
  WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK 
  WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN 
  GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE 
  TO NEARBY STRUCTURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

898 
WWAK71 PAFC 250747
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1147 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

AKZ101-250900-
/X.CAN.PAFC.HW.W.0032.000000T0000Z-111025T0900Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
1147 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.


$$

AKZ125-252100-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0026.111025T1300Z-111026T0000Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
1147 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM.

* WIND...EAST WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK 
  WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN 
  GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE 
  TO NEARBY STRUCTURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ135-252100-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0026.111025T1300Z-111026T0000Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
1147 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH 
  WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK 
  WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN 
  GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE 
  TO NEARBY STRUCTURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

118 
WWAK71 PAFC 250808
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1208 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

AKZ125-252115-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0026.111025T1300Z-111026T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0033.111025T1600Z-111026T0000Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
1208 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
PORTAGE VALLEY AND EAST TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM.

* WIND...EAST WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO
  NEARBY STRUCTURES.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ135-252115-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0026.111025T1300Z-111026T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0033.111025T1900Z-111026T0000Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
1208 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
  HOURS.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO
  NEARBY STRUCTURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ101-252115-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0033.111025T1600Z-111026T0000Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
1208 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ANCHORAGE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM
AKDT TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND OF 35 TO 45 WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PEAK
  IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO
  NEARBY STRUCTURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ171-252115-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0033.111025T2100Z-111026T0800Z/
KODIAK ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...KODIAK CITY
1208 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR KODIAK ISLAND. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM
TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT TUESDAY NIGHT.


* WIND...WEST WIND 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH. STRONGEST
  WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ISLAND...

* TIMING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING
  THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE IN SPEED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
  PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BECOME AIRBORNE AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO
  NEARBY STRUCTURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY GOOD MODEL INITIALIZATIONS BUT SOLUTIONS NEVERTHELESS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE BY 30 HOURS. POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ALSO REMAINS A
PROBLEM.
NAM AND GFS RECOGNIZE MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH BERING SEA
SYSTEM WHILE ECMWF HOLDS ALL THE ENERGY WITHIN ONE SINGLE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING CENTER. ECMWF NEVERTHELESS PREFERRED AS IT INITIALIZES THE
POSITION OF THE MEAN CENTER BETTER THAN GFS OR NAM. ACCORDING TO
ECMWF MAIN LOW CENTER SHOULD JUMP OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB OVER WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND
BY MORNING. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...MAIN LOW CENTER IN BERING SEA WILL
ACTUALLY DISSIPATE IN BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING WHILE A TRIPLE POINT
LOW DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AT THE SAME TIME
BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW CENTER.
ECMWF HAS THE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY
MODEL BEYOND 60 HOURS IS STILL QUITE LOW. TRENDED MID AND LONG RANGE
FORECASTS 50 PERCENT TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE. CHANGES MINIMAL.
HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM USEFUL IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS AS IT IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT IS CAPTURING THE HIGHER WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS OF
THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A 980 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL BECOME A 966 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND LATE MON NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA BY LATE TUE NIGHT AS A 982 MB LOW. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
MODERATE RAINS AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PEAK EARLY TOMORROW WITH KODIAK ISLAND AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND RECEIVING THE FULL IMPACT OF WARM SECTOR. OF EVEN
GREATER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALONG THE REAR FLANK OF THIS
SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH MINIMUM HURRICANE
FORCE TONIGHT ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY LIKELY TO BEGIN AS SNOW TODAY
BUT SHOULD CHANG OVER TO RAIN BY EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN RAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN LOW CENTER MOVES OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF.
A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
A 990 MB LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL TUE NIGHT. MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO MAINTAIN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. STORM SURGE GUIDANCE PRESENTLY INDICATES ANY EVENT WOULD BE
MARGINAL BUT TIMING OF SYSTEM IN RELATION TO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE THE  CRITICAL FACTOR.

.UPPER LEVELS AND LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING SEA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON CURRENT RIDGING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL HAVE
BEEN PUSHED ALMOST ENTIRELY INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE TROUGH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE BULK OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
AFTER THAT...THE TROUGH FLATTENS AND WEAKENS AND TIGHT ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS PATTERN
WILL TEND TO STEER MORE LOWS OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA...ACROSS THE
BERING SEA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDY
AND WET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HWW ZONE 181.
MARINE...GALE  129 138 140 160 171 172 175 176 180 185 411 412 413
         STORM 120 125 130 132 150 155 165 170 179 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB OCT 11