High Wind Watch 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

332 
WWAK72 PAFC 242305
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN
QUICKLY TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
DANGEROUS WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AKZ181-251400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0025.111025T0600Z-111025T1800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0031.111025T0900Z-111026T0000Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
305 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH...GUSTING TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...DIMINISHING
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE
  TO PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION....MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE AND IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF
BERING SEA LOW COMPLEX. THE DIGGING TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG SW
JET CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TOWARD A FASTER AND MORE
WESTERLY TRACK WITH DEVELOPING STORM CENTER OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
TIMING BRINGS THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY 12Z TUE WHICH
IS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER THEN YESTERDAYS 12Z SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE GFS/ECMWF WITH CURRENT GRIDS TO MAINTAIN FORECAST
CONSISTENCY WHILE STILL NUDGING TO CURRENT TREND. FURTHER FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

.ANALYSIS...
.500 MB...A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS RIPPLE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY. A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA DEEPENS AS IT MOVES TO OVER
BRISTOL BAY MON NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND ROTATES TO SOUTH OF THE AK PEN MON EVENING. AT THIS
POINT A CENTER FORMS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS TO OVER THE BARREN
ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GULF WED MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA MON
AND TUE SHIFTS EAST AS A DEVELOPING WAVE TRACKS OVER WESTERN BRISTOL
BAY TO SOUTH OF THE AK PEN ALONG 165W WED.

.SURFACE
THE 980S LOW OVER THE BERING SEA DEEPENS INTO THE 970S AS IT ENTERS
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY MON NIGHT. A SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG
THE TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN WITH A PRESSURE IN THE MID 960S TO LOWER 970S MON EVENING.
THIS CENTER THEN TRACKS TO NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS TUE. A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW AK COAST AND AK PEN THIS AFTERNOON
MOVES INTO THE SW INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT THEN
WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST MON. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEVELOPING CENTER SOUTH OF THE AK PEN TRACKS TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF
OF ALASKA MON EVENING AND TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE. A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA MON EVENING INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEAK. THE FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WILL
BRING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE GULF COAST WITH A MIX INLAND THROUGH MON.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...THE WESTERN SUSTINA VALLEY MAY SEE ITS FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE YEAR LATE TONIGHT AND MON. TEMPERATURES
WARM MON THROUGH MON NIGHT...SO WILL SEE RAIN PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND
END MUCH OF THE SNOW THREAT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...A
FURTHER EASTWARD TRACK OF LOW CENTER COULD DRAG IN COLDER AIR AND
SKEW PRECIPITATION TYPE TOWARD SNOW. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND PRODUCE STRONG GAP FLOWS
WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF STORM CENTER. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TUE
NIGHT/WED...HOWEVER WIDE SPREAD GALES WILL CONTINUE.

.SOUTHWEST AK/AK PEN...
COASTAL SW WILL HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH BRISTOL BAY MAINLY RAIN.
SNOW OR MIX INLAND WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT/TUE...BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY AND COASTAL SW AK
THROUGH MON MORNING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
SURFACE LOW COUPLED WITH SUPPORTING JET FLOW ALOFT AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AK PEN BEGINNING MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE. WARNING LEVEL GUSTS MAY RESULT.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
STRONG WEST TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE BERING SEA LOW WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEAKEN UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE KAMCHATKA PEN
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 138 140 150 155 170 171 172 175 179 180
             411 413 414
         STORM 130 132  351 352
RMC OCT 11