Gale Warning 991, NWS Anchorage, AK

876 
FZAK51 PAFC 160021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 MB LOW 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 60 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SUCKLING FRI MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE 
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF FRI AFTERNOON. A 
STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SAT.

$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 31 FT EXCEPT 24 FT N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT NEAR THE SOUTH ENTRANCE. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT NEAR THE SOUTH ENTRANCE. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...E
15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO
5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
510 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS MORNING IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY IN THE MID
940 MB RANGE AND IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO FILL AND DRIFT NORTHEAST. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS NEARING BRISTOL BAY AND EXTENDS EAST TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF AK...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL. RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WITH DOWNSLOPE HOLES EVIDENT DUE
TO THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CHUGACH AND ALEUTIAN RANGES.
PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY BEEN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH SOME WARM
AIR HAS POKED NORTH AND ALLOWED SOME RAIN TO MIX IN AROUND KODIAK
ISLAND BACK THROUGH THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. COLD AIR
WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW IS YIELDING STRAIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SATISFACTORILY CAPTURE THE WEATHER PICTURE IN THE AOR. THE
ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN THE PREFERRED MODEL DUE TO IT'S SUPERIOR
HANDLING OF THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM AND IT'S ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE
WEATHER...THOUGH THE NAM INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM WELL THIS MORNING.
THE NAM ALSO WAS DECENT MIDDLE GROUND IN HANDLING THE NEXT LOW THAT
SWINGS THROUGH THE CHAIN FRIDAY AND TO THE EASTERN BERING ON
SATURDAY. IN THE EAST...MODELS DEPICT A WAVE THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC UP THE GULF OF AK ON FRIDAY. THE NAM HAS A
SOLUTION CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. TENDED TO PREFER THE ECMWF AT THIS JUNCTURE. ALL MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREE ON ANOTHER STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW ADVANCING
TOWARDS THE AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND LATE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTCENTRAL...
STEADY RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE ALEUTIAN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
PUSH ASHORE THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. MODESTLY STRONG EAST FLOW
WILL INITIALLY TRY TO DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TEMPER PRECIPITATION TO
FLURRIES OR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
MATANUSKA VALLEY. WITH FROPA THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UP INLET
AND ALLOW SNOW TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UP INLET FLOW WILL
NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IN GENERAL...THE FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL WITH THE WAVE THAT ROTATES UP
THE GULF OF AK ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BERING/ALEUTIAN
SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST...
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS MOVING ASHORE BRISTOL BAY.
FRONTOLYSIS WILL CONTINUE AS IT RUNS INTO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR OF AK AND AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONCURRENT WITH THIS AS WILL
STEADY PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS TO PERSIST AT THE PARENT LOW WILL
PARALLEL THE WESTERN CAPES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW IS WEAKENING BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY
SQUEEZED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS STILL OCCURRING.
WINDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE AKPEN
AND EAST CENTRAL CHAIN AS COLD ADVECTION FILTERS UNDERNEATH THE LOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN IN STORE AS A PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO
NEAR ADAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR DUTCH HARBOR ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD INITIALLY WILL SURROUND
ANOTHER STRONG LOW THAT MOVES UP TOWARDS THE AKPEN/KODIAK ISLAND.
MODELS DIVERGE HOWEVER WITH WHERE THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE WILL
GO...SOUTHWEST AK OR SOUTHCENTRAL. SUFFICE TO SAY...THE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH STORM TRACK BRUSHING
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...KEEPING THINGS
ACTIVE ACROSS THE AOR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM...150 155 170 172
         GALE...120 130 132 138 160 165 171 175 179 180 185 351 352
                411 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM DEC 11