Gale Warning 988, NWS Anchorage, AK

858 
FZAK51 PAFC 151241
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL TRACK TO
320 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AT 995 MB THIS EVENING...MOVE TO AROUND 70
NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 992 MB FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE ASHORE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 31 FT EXCEPT 24 FT N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

248 
FZAK51 PAFC 151527 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
625 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

UPDATED ZONES 120 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. A LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL TRACK TO
320 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AT 995 MB THIS EVENING...MOVE TO AROUND 70
NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 992 MB FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE ASHORE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
625 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
625 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 31 FT EXCEPT 24 FT N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO POWERFUL
SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THE FIRST
LOW WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC YESTERDAY IS NOW ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 955 MB. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
FORCED THIS LOW TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. THIS MOTION IS SLOWING
AND EXPECT THE LOW TO STALL SOMETIME SOON. MEANWHILE A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPED AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AT THE HEAD OF A STRONG
UPPER JET. THIS LOW IS MARGINALLY WEAKER AND IS TRACKING NORTHWARD.
AS THE JET CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CURVE BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE FIRST LOW...LIKELY
CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE LOW. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY
IS FIGURING OUT WHEN AND WHERE THESE LOWS WILL MERGE. THIS WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE WIND FORECAST FROM COLD BAY TO
DUTCH HARBOR. FOR NOW...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WINDS ARE
RAPIDLY INCREASING THIS MORNING.

LOOKING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW WHICH
FORMED YESTERDAY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND IS NOW DISSIPATING EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TO THE COPPER BASIN. A BAND OF SNOW ALSO DEVELOPED
NEAR ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS COMBINING WITH A SHORT-WAVE TO THE NORTH (WHICH
IS JUST BARELY CLIPPING THIS AREA) TO PRODUCE THIS BAND OF SNOW.
THE AREA OF LIFT WILL HEAD UP THE SUSITNA VALLEY SO EXPECT SNOW
TO DIMINISH IN THE SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND SPREAD TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE ECMWF IS VERIFYING BEST WITH THE TWO LOWS
OUT WEST AND IS THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
SYSTEMS. THE NAM IS NOT CARRYING THE SECOND LOW...BUT ONCE LOWS
MERGE INTO ONE THE TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...WILL
MAKE USE OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM TO MAKE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS
OUT WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OF THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PARENT LOW REMAINING BACK OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO BUILD EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL BECOME MUCH WEAKER AS IT REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT
AND TO BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS IS
TYPICAL EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
CREATING UPSLOPE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP TO  MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THIS BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONG FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO BRISTOL BAY
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL SEE THE HIGHEST IMPACT
WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE BRIEFLY WITH
SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW. VISIBILITIES MAY VERY BRIEFLY REACH WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
BLIZZARD WARNING. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE MORE INTENSE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF KING
SALMON. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA EXPECT SNOW TO BE VERY LIGHT SO BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
NOT BE A HUGE PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTION ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. AFTER THIS FRONT MOVE
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT MOST
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW CROSSES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND DRIFTS
INTO THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY STRONG SOUTHERLIES WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE PENINSULA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL THEN
INCREASE BY MORNING. THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA GOES THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
EXTENDING ADJUSTING THIS. WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE MODEL RUNS COME IN
TO SEE IF THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW BEFORE
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE EXISTING WARNING. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SO WINDS WILL COME DOWN QUICKLY
DURING THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 970S THE PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALREADY BE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SO
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING WITH STRONG
UPPER JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS
LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...155 165 170.
         STORM WARNING...150 160 171 172 179.
         GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 138 175 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 11