Gale Warning 937, NWS Anchorage, AK

522 
FZAK62 PAFC 212319
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 MB LOW NEAR 47N 173W WILL MOVE TO 50N 168W THU AFTERNOON AT 
985 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN BE ABSORBED THU NIGHT INTO A STRONGER
PACIFIC LOW HEADED FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA.

$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF 177E...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. E OF 177E...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 177E.
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 20 TO 30 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

580 
FZAK62 PAFC 221220
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB NEAR 50N 158W
THU EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING
BY LATE FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY MAINLY NORTH OF 57N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF
56 N. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 57N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 58N IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 57N. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
230 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

.AT THE SURFACE...A 978 MB LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WHILE THIS LOW HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM STRENGTH...IT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SINCE THIS MORNING. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT IS BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA AND GUSTS TO OVER
70 MPH AT GLEN ALPS. STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. OUT WEST...CONDITIONS ARE RATHER QUIET WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE BERING AND WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. A JET IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
BRISTOL BAY...BUT THIS JET IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.  FURTHER
WEST...THE JET STREAM IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS.  AS A RESULT...NO NEW STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE POISED
TO IMPACT ALASKA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE BRISTOL BAY LOW TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ONE LOW APPROACHES THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND A SECOND LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE ECMWF HAS
REMAINED THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL AND WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW
WILL SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS ACROSS
PORTAGE VALLEY AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG COOK INLET LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS LOW AND ITS FRONT HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE REDUCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR BRISTOL BAY...UNTIL THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN REMAIN RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A NEW SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS A RESULT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE BERING.  COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BERING WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH THE BERING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LONG TERM
SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF
WEAKER LOWS WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...ZONE 125 131
        HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 101.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 132 138 140 150 155 160
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN DEC 11