Blizzard Watch 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

202 
WWAK41 PAFC 220106
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
406 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

AKZ141-221500-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0039.111222T1500Z-111223T1400Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
406 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 5 AM AKST FRIDAY.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN BASIN IN THE MORNING
  AND SPREADING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
  SNOWFALL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FALLING
  THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ125-221500-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0026.111222T2100Z-111223T1300Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
406 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WHITTIER...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...WHITTIER.

* SNOW...UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITY...MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...WEST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
  AND PEAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF SNOWFALL IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
  BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
  AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

AKZ131-221500-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0026.111222T1800Z-111223T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
406 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR THOMPSON PASS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. 

* LOCATION...THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
  EVENING.

* VISIBILITY...MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY 
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND 
  PEAK MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

147 
WWAK41 PAFC 220512 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
811 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

AKZ141-221915-
/X.COR.PAFC.WW.Y.0039.111222T1500Z-111223T1400Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
811 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 5 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 5 AM AKST FRIDAY.

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN BASIN IN THE MORNING
  AND SPREADING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
  SNOWFALL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FALLING
  THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ125-221915-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0026.111222T2100Z-111223T1300Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
811 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WHITTIER...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* LOCATION...WHITTIER.

* SNOW...UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITY...MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND...WEST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
  AND PEAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF SNOWFALL IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
  BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
  AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

AKZ131-221915-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0026.111222T1800Z-111223T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
811 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR THOMPSON PASS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. 

* LOCATION...THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
  EVENING.

* VISIBILITY...MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY 
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND 
  PEAK MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

870 
WWAK41 PAFC 221406
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

AKZ125-221515-
/X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.A.0026.111222T2100Z-111223T1300Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
506 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR WHITTIER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH. 

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AROUND WHITTIER
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

$$

AKZ131-230315-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0026.111222T1800Z-111223T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0050.111222T1800Z-111223T0600Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
506 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST
THIS EVENING FOR THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST
THIS EVENING. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* LOCATION...THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
  EVENING.

* VISIBILITY...MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT 
  TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
  THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE DAY...THEN
  DIMINISH LATER AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ141-230315-
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0039.111222T1500Z-111223T1400Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
506 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY. 

* SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN BASIN IN THE MORNING
  AND SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
  WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FALLING TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED 
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MORNING WEATHER MAP ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTER
OVER THE BERING SEA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA. YESTERDAYS LOW AND FRONT THAT IMPACTED SOUTHERN ALASKA HAS
PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA....LEAVING IN ITS WAKE
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COOK INLET AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGIONS. AN AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO CENTRAL COOK INLET
BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW IS EVIDENT WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

OUT WEST...THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ANCHOR LOW OF THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS FEATURE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIAN REGION THAT CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. THE ECMWF HAD A
SLIGHT EDGE IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE OTHER MODELS...AND WAS
THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR BOTH DOMAINS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS
NOW SHOW A PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN FOR MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINNING TODAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FINALLY CLEAR OF MOST OF
THE AREA THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS PLAGUING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF PRESSURE
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING UP COOK INLET. THUS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF BY NOON IN MOST
AREAS. THE REGION WILL CATCH A BREATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL STORM TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST BIG LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THIS NEW
PATTERN WILL BE A WEAKENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT NOW APPEARS THAT
IT WILL MOVE UP TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE LOW
WILL MOVE THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY EASTWARD DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WOULD
HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA.

SOUTHWEST...SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
LOW CENTER CURRENTLY NORTH OF BETHEL. THESE SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
THIS MORNING...KICKING OFF A PRONOUNCED DRYING AND COOLING TREND FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FLOOR FALLS OUT THIS WEEKEND AS BITTERLY COLD AIR RETURNS
TO THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
THE COOL AIRMASS AROUND THE REGION WILL SEE SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS
OF COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY ORGANIZED
LOW THAT THREATENS THE AREA MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CLIPS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH SOME MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS AND A
BIT OF SNOW FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM BERING
SEA WATER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST... AS ADVERTISED A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE ALASKAN
DOMAIN COMMENCES TODAY AS CLOUDY SKIES BEGIN TO BREAK AND COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO TRICKLE BACK INTO THE MAINLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE SEASONABLY
COOL WILL BECOME BITTERLY COLD FOR THE MAINLAND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS A VERY COLD UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC AND TAKES
UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 145
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 155 170 172 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 11