Gale Warning 838, NWS Anchorage, AK

596 
FZAK52 PAFC 052104 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
105 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

UPDATED ZONE 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 MB LOW 135 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL MOVES INLAND OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA LATE SAT NIGHT AT 971 MB. A 1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TO 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK SUN MORNING AND THEN MOVES TO 125
NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 993 MB LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E
WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 40 KT. S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
105 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

378 
FZAK52 PAFC 052309
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 125 NM NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SAT NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
INLAND SUN. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 110 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK SUN NIGHT AT 993 MB AND THEN TRACK TO 190 NM SOUTH OF SAND 
POINT MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-061500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

614 
FZAK52 PAFC 061221
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070300-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR KIPNUK MOVES INLAND BY MIDDAY. A 1005 MB LOW 325 NM
SOUTH OF ATTU INTENSIFIES TO 993 MB MON MORNING NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND
THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MON NIGHT. A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 960 MB MON NIGHT NEAR ATTU.

$$

PKZ150-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 30 KT
BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-070300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-070300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-070300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING
SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-070300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING
W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING
TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-070300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-070300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

050 
FZAK52 PAFC 070002
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-071500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 994 MB LOW 100 MILES SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 130 NM EAST OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 999 MB MON MORNING...THEN EJECT INTO THE GULF OF AK
MON NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHERN
BERING MON EVENING AND WEAKEN. A LOW OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AT 965 MB MON EVENING...THEN MOVE 
TO AROUND 230 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 953 MB TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT. SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-071500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-071500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-071500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...BERING SIDE...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-071500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING
NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 40 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 65 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 36
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-071500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. E
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-071500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING FROM THE
WEST IS CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN. MOVING INTO
THE MID TERM MODELS ARE STILL DOING WELL BUT HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE NEW LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT
WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NORTH THAN THE EC
OR NAM WHILE THE EC BECOMES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE NAM MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE WEST WE WENT WITH THE EC AND IN THE EAST WE WENT WITH THE NAM
OVER THE LAND FOR DETAIL AND THE EC OVER THE WATER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST WHICH HAS CAUSED
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO SLOW DOWN. BEHIND THIS LOW
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. FURTHER TO THE
WEST A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND OUT
OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE RIDGE A STRENGTHENING
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING AND WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE MAINLAND NEAR BETHEL SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR THE EAST...WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL BRING SOUTHCENTRAL ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF MEASURABLE
SNOW THIS EVENING...MOSTLY UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM SOUTHWEST AK. THE COLD ADVECTION AND
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
GULF COAST...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE TYPICAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT WHERE SNOW IS
TRANSPORTABLE LIKE THOMPSON PASS AN ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MIGHT
BE WARRANTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY. A LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE OCCLUSION NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL DROP SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM KACHEMAK BAY
UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
TOTALS TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW TAPERS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEAR BRISTOL BAY...SO
MORE SNOW IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING. NOT UNTIL MONDAY WILL THE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND COLDER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

FOR THE WEST...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO TAPER DOWN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE LOW OVER THE STATE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST. THEY WILL PICK BACK UP AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE ALEUTIANS AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION BEING RAIN DUE TO THE WARM AIR BEING
ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT REACH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE COAST THE QUESTION IS
WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXPECTED. IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN...HOWEVER IN AREAS NEAR BETHEL WE ARE LOOKING
AT SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY WE HAVE A BLIZZARD WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE REGION. THE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE HIGH SURF
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
FROM BRISTOL BAY TO NORTON SOUND. THIS STORM WILL HAVE OUR ATTENTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS NAIL DOWN THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
PATH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH...155
MARINE...STORM...185
         GALES...129 130 132 138 127 150 155 160 165 180 170 171 172
         175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK/AB NOV 11