Gale Warning 799, NWS Anchorage, AK

445 
FZAK62 PAFC 150019
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 56N 168W MOVES TO 57N 155W AT 1008 MB TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
RETREATS NORTH AND EAST TUE. A 994 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172E TUE MORNING
MOVES TO 55N 167E AT 983 MB LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO
57N 164E AT 984 MB WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SUNDAY MORNING GOES IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL IMPULSES
CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THAT EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA.
FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH SNOW EACH PASSING IMPULSE DROPS
IN ANY GIVEN AREA, AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL. SOUTHCENTRAL SNOW FROM
LAST NIGHT BROUGHT AT LEAST 9 INCHES TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH
RANGE AND THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE. AT MID DAY SUNDAY NEXT SURGE APPEARS TO
HAVE PUSHED TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WITH MERRILL PASS BACK TO REPORTING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA BY THIS EVENING, OR EARLIER, WITH THE MAIN SNOW AREA
REMAINING NORTH OF KENAI OR SO WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING NEAR AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF TERRAIN. BEHIND THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DRY
THINGS OUT AGAIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

YET ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE LAST IN THE SERIES BUT WILL ALSO BE
THE ONE THAT PULLS THE MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. VERY COLD UPPER
LOW NOW SITTING OVER THE ICE COVERED BEAUFORT SEA IS SCHEDULED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
APPEARS ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES WILL (SHOULD) OCCUR WITH
THIS ONE.

BIG NEWS WILL BE THE STRONG THRUST OF ARCTIC AIR THAT SURGES SOUTHWARD ON
VERY BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. ICE AGE
LIKE THICKNESSES FORECAST TO COVER ALL OF EASTERN ALASKA BY TUE EVENING
WITH THE COLDEST CORE HOLDING BACK OVER THE EASTERN TANANA VALLEY AND YUKON
FLATS. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY COLDER MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT FORECAST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER IT CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
REACHES 155W. AS THE STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE GULF ARCTIC CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD DOWN ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND WITH PRETTY STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FORM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND COPPER RIVER DELTA. HEAVY SNOW SITUATION DEVELOPING FORM CORDOVA
EASTWARD TO YAKUTAT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BRING GALES, POSSIBLE STORMS,
AND RAIN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF POWERFUL STORMS THAT
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN, AND THEN CENTRAL BERING BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECASTS
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

D PERCY NOV 11