Gale Warning 794, NWS Anchorage, AK

427 
FZAK62 PAFC 110023
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR 48N 179W WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 955 MB NEAR 59N
165W FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR KIPNUK FRI
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING
DURING THE DAY SAT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD.

$$

PKZ411-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH OF 65
N...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

478 
FZAK62 PAFC 111216
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 961 MB LOW NEAR 57N 170W WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 60N 164W AT 949 MB
FRI EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF 175W...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. E OF 175W...N WIND 35 KT
BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER CHUKCHI SEA WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS ALASKA. A STRONG TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BERING PRODUCED A VERY STRONG STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE BERING
YESTERDAY AND INTO THE CHUKCHI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM PRODUCED
COASTAL FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE
THREAT OF HIGH SEAS AND SURGE TO THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. A SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A RELATIVELY STRONG JET STREAM OF 170KT AND WILL PUSH
TO THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAKER WAVE IS RIDING ALONG THE JET AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT.

THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA HAS BROKEN DOWN AND CLOUDS HAVE
FILTERED INTO THE AREA. AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES INLAND TONIGHT ALONG
THE WEST COAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
IN RESPONSE TO THE JET CORE AND THE WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE VERY LARGE
STORM IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS ALSO BEEN ANALYZED WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION AND WIND PATTERNS WERE ALSO ANALYZED WELL. THE MODEL
SPREAD IS QUITE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE POLAR VORTEX
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONSISTENTLY OVER THE MAINLAND STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN
BERING INTO THE YUKON THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE BERING
MONDAY WITH A LINGERING LOW IN THE GULF AS THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES
INTO THE YUKON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
A SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RIP
THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING EXTRA LIFT THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SPIN UP OF
THE LOW WILL BRING SOME MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN ANOMALY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. IF WE
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE HEAVILY...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATER THAN
ADVERTISED. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF. IF IT MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST TOWARD CORDOVA...THE SNOW
IN ANCHORAGE WILL BE ABOUT HALF AS ADVERTISED. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MID AND UPPER
HILLSIDE. THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL
TOMORROW MORNING WILL ACT AS A SWEEPER AS WELL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STABLE AND DRIER AIR WILL
DOMINATE. WITH THE LOW EAST OF CORDOVA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MAINLAND...NORTH AND WEST GAP FLOWS WILL
BE STRONG. THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH IS
SHOVED EAST WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BRISTOL LOW MOVES INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER SNOW PRODUCER...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER WITH THIS STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WILL EXPECT SOME TURNAGAIN ARM WIND WITH THIS STORM FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH. THE LOWS WILL LIFT INTO THE MAINLAND SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...
THE STRONG STORM IS ENDING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS STRONG AND STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE BERING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF COASTAL
STORM SURGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRAVERSE THE BERING TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE LOW WILL
BE AROUND 980MB THURSDAY EVENING NEAR ADAK. HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION
WITH THIS STORM AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE
AROUND GALE FORCE AND DUE TO THE TRACK...STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY AT ROUGHLY
960MB. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE LOW WEAKENS TO 970MB
SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE REMAINS INLAND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING MONDAY.

EXTENDED...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INLAND AREAS MONDAY WITH A STRONG LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CREEP
EAST OVER TIME IN THE EXTENDED...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTH AND WEST GAP FLOWS WILL
BE A PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED. THE ALEUTIAN LOW SPREADS A FRONT INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...155
         SNOW ADVISORY...101
MARINE...STORM WARNING...179 412 414
         GALE WARNING....120 130 132 160 165 170 172 175 185
                         351 352 411 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN NOV 11