Gale Warning 648, NWS Anchorage, AK

168 
FZAK51 PAFC 182345
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 964 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 50 NM EAST 
OF KODIAK AT 969 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 65 KT BECOMING 
SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 65 KT...DIMINISHING TO SE 35 KT E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING 
E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 30 KT...SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT EXCEPT 9 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION/ANALYSIS...

MODELS ARE DOING VERY WELL IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
NAM...GFS...EC...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO THE LOW 960S MB PRESSURE WHILE
SKIRTING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVING ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MAKES A TURN NORTH TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE MAINTAINING STRENGTH OR
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PUSHING A STRONG FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REACHING THE GULF COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEPICTS HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILE THE EC AND NAM DEPICT
MODERATE STORM FORCE WINDS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE
WILL VERY LIKELY BE AT LEAST LOW-END STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF ON
MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AS WELL AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. AS THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE LOW OVER THE
GULF BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK...EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM AND RAIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST. ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE CHUGACH...SUCH AS ANCHORAGE AND PALMER AND THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA NORTH OF NILNILCHIK...DOWNSLOPE DRYING CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHWEST...

WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
UNTIL THE STRONG LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL THEN
ESPECIALLY IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES...WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA REGION.
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. AREAS OF
FOG...PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE...WILL BE COMMON WHERE ENOUGH CLEARING
TAKES PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN FLOW
ALOFT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SKIRTING THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS
AND SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO A LOCATION ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF COLD BAY...THOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
WITH A POSSIBLE BARRIER JET FORMATION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

MOST OF THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE AND SLOWLY WEAKENING
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.
THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...132 138 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC SEP 11