Gale Warning 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

859 
FZAK61 PAFC 181153
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 52N 170W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB NEAR 53N 156W
MON MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 55N 152W AT SAME STRENGTH LATE
MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

920 
FZAK61 PAFC 182327
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 964 MB LOW NEAR 51N 162W WILL MOVE TO 58N 151W AT 969 MB TUE
AFTERNOON AT 969 MB.
$$

PKZ351-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

100 
FZAK61 PAFC 191153
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200300-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 52N 157W WILL MOVE TO 60N 151W AT 975 MB LATE TUE
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

637 
FZAK61 PAFC 192314
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201500-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR 54N 154W WILL MOVE TO 58N 152W AT 971 MB TUE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 59N 160W AT 975 MB WED. A 966 MB LOW NEAR
53N 139W TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 58N 139W AT 969 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

866 
FZAK61 PAFC 201156
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210300-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 966 MB LOW NEAR 56N 151W WILL WEAKEN TO 973 MB NEAR 59N 153W TUE
EVENING AND BECOME A NEARLY STATIONARY COMPLEX LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. A 975 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 51N 141W TUE
EVENING AND STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB NEAR 58N 140W WED AFTERNOON AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE COMPLEX LOW WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF 147W...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. ELSEWHERE...SE WIND
15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-210300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF 147W...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. ELSEWHERE...S WIND 20
KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

842 
FZAK61 PAFC 202318
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 972 MB LOW NEAR 58N 150W WEAKEN TO 977 MB NEAR 58N 155W TUE NIGHT
AND BECOME A NEARLY STATIONARY COMPLEX LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH LATE THU AFTERNOON. A 977 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 51N 141W TUE
EVENING AND STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB NEAR 56N 138W WED MORNING THEN
WEAKEN TO 975 MB AS IT MOVE ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 T0 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF
ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST A BIT SOONER THAN THE NAM. THIS DESPITE THE FACE THAT ALL
MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC/OVERALL AGREEMENT...THOUGH AS
EXPECTED SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH EXACT PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES IN THE ALASKAN DOMAIN. HAVE OPTED TO USE
THE GFS MODEL IN THE SHORT AND MID RANGE FORECASTS...TRANSITIONING TO
HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM
THE WESTERN BERING TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE...WITH AN 80-90 KT JET
STREAM SUPPORTING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. TWO WEAK UPPER LOWS ARE
NEARLY STATIONARY WITHIN THE TROUGH....ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND WEAK
SURFACE LOWS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE DOMAIN...GENERATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ALL THE WAY OUT INTO THE BERING. ONE OF
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN THE PATTERN IS PUSHING ONSHORE THE
KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD BATCH OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER TODAY WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
ACROSS THE MAINLAND AS PREVIOUS DAYS....WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH
SO MANY WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOWS IT IS ONCE
AGAIN VERY HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP. THE GULF COASTLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THOUGH WITH DOWNSLOPING COMING TO AN
END THIS MORNING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND WESTERN KENAI SHOULD SEE A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN THAN YESTERDAY.

THIS EVENING ALL EYES TURN WEST TO A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THAT WILL BECOME A MAJOR WEATHERMAKER FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. THE MAJOR DRIVER BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE AN EXTREMELY POTENT 180 KT JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE LOW TRACK WILL PARALLEL JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEFORE RE-CURVING BACK UP INTO THE WESTERN GULF
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJOR LOW DEVELOPING
OUT WEST WILL HAVE THE OVERALL EFFECT OF SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING THE
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW ITSELF SHOULD
WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK BUT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS IT PINWHEELS AROUND IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
MEANS CONTINUED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND
WITH SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE  150 155 165 170 171 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON SEP 11