Gale Warning 627, NWS Anchorage, AK

867 
FZAK52 PAFC 081202
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 MB LOW 70 NM EAST OF SAND POINT DISSIPATES THU AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES TO THE EASTERN
BERING THU. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL BERING FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...6 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 30 KT EAST OF ATKA. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT EAST OF ATKA. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT NEAR SAINT GEORGE IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 7 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONSENSUS ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT THE
UPPER LEVELS IS GOOD. SURFACE MSLP FIELDS ARE ALSO IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA. DIGGING AND BROADENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION RESULTS IN A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
LOWS. THE END RESULT...A LOT LESS WIND AND RAIN...BUT A GREATER
CHALLENGE RESOLVING WEAK GULF FEATURES.

.UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TO THE NE PACIFIC OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR LOWS DEVELOP IN THE BROADENING TROUGH AND
HANG SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
GULF CENTER WEAKENS AND LIFTS N AND E SAT WHILE THE SOUTHERN MOST
CENTER...WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN...REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM THE WESTERLY
FLOW.  THE BERING SEA RIDGE FLATTENS FRI AND SAT AS A LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS SETS UP GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND WITH MINOR SHORT WAVES RIPPLING
EASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG LOW THAT WAS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST TOWARD BRISTOL BAY
AND WEAKENING. STRONG GRADIENT/GAP FLOWS IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE ALONG
THE NORTH GULF BROADENS. HEAVY RAINS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA..WITH 3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 15 INCHES AT
PORTAGE...WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS.
AFFECTED RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE EASTERN KENAI HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THU. GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE FIELDS SET UP OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THU AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SO LOOK FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOWS...A LITTLE SUNSHINE...AND SOME SHOWERS.

.SW ALASKA...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE DELTA WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THE BRISTOL BAY CENTER
WILL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL DRIFT SOUTH THRU THU. NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE DELTA WILL DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO THU. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE DELTA THU AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST THRU THU NIGHT. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE DELTA THU NIGHT. A LITTLE RAIN AND SWLY
WINDS MAY CLIP THE DELTA LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A FRONT MOVES EAST AND
BERING SEA RIDGE FLATTENS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL
DIMINISH THRU THU. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST AND WEAKENS THRU FRI EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER
MOVES TO THE WEST/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATER FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND BRIEFLY THIS WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
IMPROVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING BACK
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY ZONES 121 AND 125.
MARINE...GALES 125 129 170 179 180 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11