Gale Warning 626, NWS Anchorage, AK

770 
FZAK51 PAFC 081201
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 MB LOW 70 NM EAST OF SAND POINT DISSIPATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 7 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONSENSUS ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT THE
UPPER LEVELS IS GOOD. SURFACE MSLP FIELDS ARE ALSO IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA. DIGGING AND BROADENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION RESULTS IN A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
LOWS. THE END RESULT...A LOT LESS WIND AND RAIN...BUT A GREATER
CHALLENGE RESOLVING WEAK GULF FEATURES.

.UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TO THE NE PACIFIC OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR LOWS DEVELOP IN THE BROADENING TROUGH AND
HANG SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE
GULF CENTER WEAKENS AND LIFTS N AND E SAT WHILE THE SOUTHERN MOST
CENTER...WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN...REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM THE WESTERLY
FLOW.  THE BERING SEA RIDGE FLATTENS FRI AND SAT AS A LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS SETS UP GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND WITH MINOR SHORT WAVES RIPPLING
EASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG LOW THAT WAS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST TOWARD BRISTOL BAY
AND WEAKENING. STRONG GRADIENT/GAP FLOWS IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE ALONG
THE NORTH GULF BROADENS. HEAVY RAINS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA..WITH 3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 15 INCHES AT
PORTAGE...WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS.
AFFECTED RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE EASTERN KENAI HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THU. GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE FIELDS SET UP OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THU AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SO LOOK FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOWS...A LITTLE SUNSHINE...AND SOME SHOWERS.

.SW ALASKA...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE DELTA WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THE BRISTOL BAY CENTER
WILL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL DRIFT SOUTH THRU THU. NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE DELTA WILL DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO THU. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE DELTA THU AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST THRU THU NIGHT. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE DELTA THU NIGHT. A LITTLE RAIN AND SWLY
WINDS MAY CLIP THE DELTA LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A FRONT MOVES EAST AND
BERING SEA RIDGE FLATTENS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL
DIMINISH THRU THU. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST AND WEAKENS THRU FRI EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER
MOVES TO THE WEST/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATER FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND BRIEFLY THIS WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
IMPROVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING BACK
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY ZONES 121 AND 125.
MARINE...GALES 125 129 170 179 180 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11