Gale Warning 519, NWS Anchorage, AK

848 
FZAK62 PAFC 022340
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031500-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB SIBERIAN LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 63N 171W WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 64N 166W 
THU AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

636 
FZAK62 PAFC 031127
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040300-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 64N 176W WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO 63N 166W AT SAME
STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN
TO 990 MB NEAR 66N 168W LATE THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

878 
FZAK62 PAFC 032325
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 63N 170W WILL MOVE TO 63N 166W AT 982 MB THU
AFTERNOON AND THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN FRI. A 997 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 61N 180 FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING N 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

CORRECTED TYPO

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A VERY DEEP ANCHOR LOW OVER THE ARCTIC SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC. A 100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET IS RIDING SOUTHWARD ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS TROUGH
AND A STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGE WHICH IS HELPING TO RAPIDLY DRIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME STRONG
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURES. A SHORT-WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR
ALASKA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF IT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
TAPERING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE
FROM ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA OVER TO BRISTOL BAY AND
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE IN LINE IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WHILE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. VERY NOTEWORTHY IS THE FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SHORT-WAVE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.
ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE
SUMMER OR EARLY FALL-LIKE STORM.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL SOLUTIONS EXCEPT THE NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME IDEA...BUT IT DIGS
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEREFORE
DEPICTS SURFACE LOW NEARLY 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS.
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF FOCUSED LIFT.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TUESDAY AS TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS BERING PICKS UP THE TROUGH ALONG THE ALEUTIANS SENDING IT
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MIDDLE OF COPPER BASIN WHICH WILL BE PROTECTED
BY THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY. WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FLOW DOWN COOK INLET TOWARD THE
LOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING SO DO NOT EXPECT THE TURNAGAIN WINDS TO
GET INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. ALSO...THESE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FIRST 2 OR 3 THOUSAND FEET WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE THAT. THUS EXPECT RAIN TO FALL EVEN IN PLACES TYPICALLY
AFFECTED BY DOWNSLOPE DRYING.

AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT A FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IT WILL
SHOVE THE RIDGE INLAND AND SET UP A BARRIER JET RESULTING IN GALE
FORCE WINDS. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO FORM IN BRISTOL BAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO BACK TOWARD THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP
CUT OFF STEADY RAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING
BEGINS TO AFFECT TYPICAL AREAS. MEANWHILE...RAIN WILL ONLY INTENSIFY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS...ENHANCED IN UPSLOPE AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF SEVERAL INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THESE
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA SWINGS EASTWARD THIS EVENING RAIN WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF IT...PRIMARILY FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. RAIN
WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS SURFACE LOW FORMS SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND MOISTURE ADVECTS WESTWARD OVER TOP OF THIS LOW. AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...PRIMARILY THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...WILL REMAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT STORM IN LINE...DROPPING DOWN FROM
SIBERIA...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE CENTRAL BERING SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WILL JUST BE CLIPPED BY
THE SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE ARCTIC...WITH THE PRIMARY
AREA OF GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PASSING TO THE EAST. THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL STAY QUIET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ECMWF/GFS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION OF PATTERN DURING THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF SIBERIA TUESDAY NIGHT CUTTING OFF AND
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK. THE
DEEP LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC WILL THEN SWING DOWN AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW. IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME TO PINPOINT INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THESE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE REPERCUSSIONS FOR MAINLAND ALASKA ARE
CLEAR. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND
WET. THIS DOESN'T MEAN THERE WON'T BE A DAYLONG BREAK SOMEWHERE
IN THERE...BUT ON AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING PRETTY GLOOMY.
ALSO OF NOTE...THE SIBERIAN LOW WILL DRAG DOWN SOME VERY COLD
LOW LEVEL AIR WITH GFS SHOWING 850 TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
ADVECTING ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 11