Gale Warning 518, NWS Anchorage, AK

471 
FZAK61 PAFC 022304
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031500-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 58N 154W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 1005 MB AS IT MOVES TO 59N 
150W WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

051 
FZAK61 PAFC 031123
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040300-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR 58N 154W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 1004 MB NEAR 59N
150W LATE WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU EVENING.
$$

PKZ351-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-040300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

137 
FZAK61 PAFC 032302
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-041500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR 57N 153W WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 59N 148W THU MORNING.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU EVENING AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

CORRECTED TYPO

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A VERY DEEP ANCHOR LOW OVER THE ARCTIC SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC. A 100 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET IS RIDING SOUTHWARD ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS TROUGH
AND A STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGE WHICH IS HELPING TO RAPIDLY DRIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME STRONG
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURES. A SHORT-WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS ROTATING NORTHWARD TOWARD INTERIOR
ALASKA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF IT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
TAPERING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE
FROM ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA OVER TO BRISTOL BAY AND
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE IN LINE IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WHILE ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. VERY NOTEWORTHY IS THE FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SHORT-WAVE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.
ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE
SUMMER OR EARLY FALL-LIKE STORM.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL SOLUTIONS EXCEPT THE NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THE NAM SHOWS THE SAME IDEA...BUT IT DIGS
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEREFORE
DEPICTS SURFACE LOW NEARLY 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS.
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF FOCUSED LIFT.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TUESDAY AS TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS BERING PICKS UP THE TROUGH ALONG THE ALEUTIANS SENDING IT
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE MIDDLE OF COPPER BASIN WHICH WILL BE PROTECTED
BY THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO
SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY. WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FLOW DOWN COOK INLET TOWARD THE
LOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING SO DO NOT EXPECT THE TURNAGAIN WINDS TO
GET INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. ALSO...THESE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FIRST 2 OR 3 THOUSAND FEET WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE THAT. THUS EXPECT RAIN TO FALL EVEN IN PLACES TYPICALLY
AFFECTED BY DOWNSLOPE DRYING.

AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT A FRONT WILL TRACK NORTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IT WILL
SHOVE THE RIDGE INLAND AND SET UP A BARRIER JET RESULTING IN GALE
FORCE WINDS. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO FORM IN BRISTOL BAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO BACK TOWARD THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP
CUT OFF STEADY RAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING
BEGINS TO AFFECT TYPICAL AREAS. MEANWHILE...RAIN WILL ONLY INTENSIFY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS...ENHANCED IN UPSLOPE AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF SEVERAL INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THESE
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA SWINGS EASTWARD THIS EVENING RAIN WILL PICK UP AHEAD
OF IT...PRIMARILY FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. RAIN
WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS SURFACE LOW FORMS SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND MOISTURE ADVECTS WESTWARD OVER TOP OF THIS LOW. AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...PRIMARILY THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...WILL REMAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST
ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT STORM IN LINE...DROPPING DOWN FROM
SIBERIA...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE CENTRAL BERING SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WILL JUST BE CLIPPED BY
THE SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE ARCTIC...WITH THE PRIMARY
AREA OF GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PASSING TO THE EAST. THE WESTERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL STAY QUIET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ECMWF/GFS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION OF PATTERN DURING THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF SIBERIA TUESDAY NIGHT CUTTING OFF AND
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK. THE
DEEP LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ARCTIC WILL THEN SWING DOWN AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW. IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME TO PINPOINT INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THESE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE REPERCUSSIONS FOR MAINLAND ALASKA ARE
CLEAR. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION OF COOL AND
WET. THIS DOESN'T MEAN THERE WON'T BE A DAYLONG BREAK SOMEWHERE
IN THERE...BUT ON AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING PRETTY GLOOMY.
ALSO OF NOTE...THE SIBERIAN LOW WILL DRAG DOWN SOME VERY COLD
LOW LEVEL AIR WITH GFS SHOWING 850 TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
ADVECTING ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 11