Gale Warning 494, NWS Anchorage, AK

402 
FZAK52 PAFC 060605 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1005 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

UPDATED ZONE 165 171 180

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT TO 110
NM NORTH OF ST PAUL AT 999 MB THU AFTERNOON. A 1010 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 150 NM EAST OF SAND POINT THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
1005 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SE GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SE GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
1005 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...WINDS
DIMINISHING TO  S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
1005 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...GUSTING TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-061500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

561 
FZAK52 PAFC 061122
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070300-
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT TO 80 NM
SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1001 MB THU AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING THU EVENING. A 1000 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 160 NM NORTHEAST
OF ATTU THU AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY TRACK TO AROUND 60 NM NORTH OF
SAINT PAUL AT 997 MB FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY LATE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-070300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-070300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-070300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-070300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-070300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 20 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-070300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER
THE STATE WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
AND A SECOND ONE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION
BETWEEN THESE CENTERS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THIS
RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
IN THE BERING SEA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...STAYING IN THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA INTO THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS AN UNSEASONALLY STRONG LOW AND FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE BERING SEA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS THE WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS IN THE NORTHWEST BERING
SEA.
A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF SHOWS UP NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SWELL
BEING GENERATED BY THIS LOW TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ON THE MAJOR FEATURES ARE NOT IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THE MEANDERING
NATURE OF THE BERING SEA LOW AND ALSO WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE EC HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION FROM THE SET OF 12Z
MODEL RUNS AND THE EC NAM AND GFS ALL WERE A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN THE
EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. SINCE THIS MOVEMENT IS SO SLOW AND IT
ESSENTIALLY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR THE WIND DIRECTION IN THE
MARINE AREAS OF THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS UNSTABLE TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN UNSTABLE
QUITE A BIT LATELY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR ALOFT THERE HAS
GENERALLY NOT BEEN ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
THERE IS A BETTER TRIGGER TODAY WITH LARGE AREAS OF CLEARING ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL LIFT TO BE GREATER THAN MANY OTHER DAYS. THEREFORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRESENTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY AS WELL AS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW ALONG THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS. WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY BECOMES
MORE STABLE AND KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE AS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING
SEA...DOES NOT MOVE MUCH. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH AND EAST IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO THAT IS A FACTOR
IN THE FORECAST. WHAT LOOKS LIKELY IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
COOL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KEEP RAIN AND SHOWERS
IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF THURSDAY. WHILE THIS LOW WILL BE WEAK IT WILL HAVE A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BACK
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE BIG QUESTION ABOUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
COUNTERACT THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLPOING
ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF MOUNTAINS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 11