Gale Warning 473, NWS Anchorage, AK

748 
FZAK52 PAFC 252306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 969 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 180 NM 
NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL MON AFTERNOON AT 988 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-261500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-261500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-261500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-261500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 12
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-261500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-261500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-261500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
205 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY AS A FEW SYSTEMS
ARE POISED TO IMPACT DIFFERENT AREAS OF THE STATE. THE LARGE BROAD
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
WESTERN INTERIOR HAS LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY AS A SYSTEM RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED 150
KT JET WILL DIG OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HELPING TO DEVELOP A 970 MB
ALEUTIAN LOW.

AT THE BASE OF THE OLD TROUGH IS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT IS
SWINGING NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT IS HELPING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE GET
EJECTED FROM THE PANHANDLE TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...AFTER DAYS OF SPECULATION IT SEEMS THAT THE
PICTURE IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR FOR THIS EVENINGS FORECAST CHALLENGES.
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE FAR
EAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR DOMAIN TODAY WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE MID AND LONG RANGE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EASTERLY WAVE SPREADING CLOUDS RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. IT
APPEARS THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WILL PAN OUT WITH
RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED
THIS MORNING ALLOWING MAXIMUM HEATING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS
REGION ARE RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THEN RAIN SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
INLAND BUT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE PERIODS OF CLOUDS
AND SUN WITH MOISTURE STICKING AROUND. IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE TROUGH THAT IS
DEVELOPING IN THE BERING SEA...SO WILL HAVE TO STICK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SOUTHWEST...CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WHILE THE INTERIOR SEES SOME SUNNY BREAKS. SIMILAR TO THE EASTERN
DOMAIN...THE INTERIOR PORTIONS THAT ARE SEEING SUN THIS MORNING HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CUMULUS ARE JUST NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY FOR FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALSO LOOK PROMISING FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHEASTERLY SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHILE THETA-E REMAINS
ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION. COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY AND
COOL DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FURTHER WEST...ALL EYES OUT WEST ON A RELATIVELY STRONG SUMMER SYSTEM
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS HAVE DIALED INTO A
CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 972 MB SATURDAY MORNING AND MAXIMUM GALES AS THE
LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A 150 KT JET
DIVING SOUTHWARD AND PICKING UP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MARCH ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT LOSE MUCH OF ITS ENERGY ALONG
THE WAY. THE LARGE LOW STAYS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 175 176 411 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JUN 11