Gale Warning 422, NWS Anchorage, AK

205 
FZAK51 PAFC 191831 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1030 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

UPDATED 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST GULF WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SECOND AND STRONGER WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY EVENING. 
$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1030 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

051 
FZAK51 PAFC 192304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS
THROUGH SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...GOING WITH THE NAM FOR ITS ABILITY TO CAPTURE LOCAL
EFFECTS BETTER. IN THE MID TERM THE EC IS BRINGING THE NEW NORTH
PACIFIC LOW INTO THE EASTERN BERING WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP IT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH
THE GFS AND EC. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE EC SEEMS TO BE MORE
CONSISTENT AND WE ARE TRENDING TO THAT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM.

.UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS OVER THE
BERING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR THE REGION. NEW LOWS CONTINUE
TO FORM IN THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THE PATTERN FOR THE WEST AND
INTO THE GULF ACTIVE. THE MAIN PART OF THE JET IS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND IS GUIDING THE LOW THAT SITS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TO THE EAST. ANOTHER LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING IS STARTING
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC A NEW DEEP LOW IS FORMING THAT WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY
THE JET SKIRTING ALONG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. RIDGING
FROM WESTERN CANADA BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE.

.AT THE SURFACE...FRONTS AND TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VARIOUS LOWS
IN THE WEST WILL BE IMPACTS FOR AREAS ALL ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND BECOME A FACTOR FOR THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FOR THE EAST...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FOLLOWED BY CONSTANT EASTERLY FLOW KODIAK WILL SEE RAIN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE COAST AREAS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS IN THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THERE IS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
DIURNAL CHANGES COMBINED WITH THE RIDGING NEAR THE GULF COAST BRINGS
GAP WINDS TO AREAS AROUND THE SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE VALLEY...AND THE KNIK VALLEY.

.FOR THE WEST...THE MULTIPLE FRONTS AND TROUGHS THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ARE BRINGING WITH THEM RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DEEP LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA IS PRODUCING STRONGER
WINDS AND GALES THAT WILL BE AN IMPACT FOR AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER AND THEN PROGRESSES EAST. A CONSISTENT
PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL BERING CONTINUES TO BRING LOW STRATUS AND FOG
TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND. THE PATTERN OF RAIN SHOWERS REMAINS FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE THE NORM FOR
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GENERAL PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE BERING THAT IS BRINGING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF LOWS TO THE
REGION AS WELL AS THE RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...120 170 171 172
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111 141

*** MAY 11