Gale Warning 423, NWS Anchorage, AK

051 
FZAK51 PAFC 192304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS
THROUGH SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...GFS WAS USED
THIS MORNING AS THE NAM DID NOT COMPLETELY MAKE INTO THE SYSTEM
ALTHOUGH IT DID COME BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS. THE MID TERM MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW TO THE SOUTH OF
KODIAK BY SATURDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL DOMINATES THE BERING STRETCHING FROM
THE EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. SEVERAL UPPER
LOWS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BERING EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. A
SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RUNS UP ALONG THE PANHANDLE ALONG THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER JET IS
RUNNING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MAINLY ALONG 46N WHICH IS
STEERING THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
ALONG THE SURFACE THE MAJOR PLAYER IS A DEEP 960S LOW OUT WEST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHICH IS TRACKING TO THE EAST...AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREAS ALL ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALONG THE GULF COAST
AN OLD LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE GULF COAST TODAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET UP AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREAS WITH KEEP
MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
AND RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE COAST STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHWEST...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST HERE ALSO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS TO CONTINUE.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE PRIBILOFS.
THE DEEP LOW TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
WINDS THE FROM THE WEST TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GENERAL PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE BERING THAT
IS BRINGING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF LOWS TO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111.

MAY 11