Gale Warning 389, NWS Anchorage, AK

199 
FZAK62 PAFC 122356
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR 56N 170E WILL MOVE TO 58N 169E AT 995 MB FRI
AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE SAT MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
POSITION. A 1000 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 53N 169W FRI AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE TO NEAR 59N 170W AT 992 MB SAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
WILL TRACK TO NEAR 51N 175E AT 980 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ411-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED MAY 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD
MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE THE UPPER LOW WEST OF QUEEN CHARLOTTE CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH. THE STRONG NORTHERLY JET OVER WESTERN ALASKA HAS KEPT
GUSTS WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY.

A SURFACE LOW 250 MILES WEST OF ATTU CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN BERING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING HAD BROUGHT RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAD
KEPT THE REGION MOSTLY CLEAR...WARM AND VERY DRY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY MAINTAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. THE BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ALASKA THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL MAINLAND FRIDAY. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW WEST OF ATTU WILL TURN NORTH AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN BERING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING THEN STALL OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN
BERING AS A WEAL FRONTAL WAVE...DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY AND THE  ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING THURSDAY THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DEVELOPING
FRONTAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SUNDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT SWINGING EAST AND
DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER NEAR CROOKED CREEK.
MARINE...GALE 121 127 130 170 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ANCHORAGE...MATANUSKA VALLEY...
               WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY.
NM MAY 11