Gale Warning 410, NWS Anchorage, AK

790 
FZAK52 PAFC 121104
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW 180 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 350 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA AT 990 MB THU NIGHT AND THEN REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRI
NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO 997 MB. A 1009 MB LOW FORMS 155 NM SOUTH OF
ATKA THU NIGHT AND MOVES TO 55 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL FRI NIGHT AT 
997 MB. A 986 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 430 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA LATE FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
12 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 AM AKDT WED MAY 11 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTICALLY.
BIGGER DISCREPANCIES ARISE BY THE WEEKEND IN THE PLACEMENT OF A FRONT
THAT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA EXTENDING TOWARDS THE KODIAK
ISLAND VICINITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST WITH TIME AND REACH SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY EXPECT TO SEE A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS DISTURBANCES MOVE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN.

OUT WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED BETWEEN THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...BLOCKED BY THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH FRONTS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA...BUT THESE FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO FINALLY MAKE SOME HEADWAY EAST AS
MODELS INDICATE A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY FORM SOMETIME FRIDAY NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
PRIBILOFS ON SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS A STRONG YET DRY DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT
NORTHERLY WINDS QUITE STRONG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTH THROUGH ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY
AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS
GRADIENT AS WELL AS THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OVER THE GULF...BUT WILL WATCH FOR ANY
DISTURBANCES THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FROM
THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS NEAR NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
TERRAIN GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AND
MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL PUSH A SERIES
OF FRONTS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW POSSIBLY
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP GALE FORCE
WINDS AND RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAKING IT TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS BY THURSDAY...THEN TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FIGURING OUT HOW FAR EAST SYSTEMS WILL MAKE
IT AS THEY ENCOUNTER EVER INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA...AND THE FAR
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE
NORTH GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH/WARNING...LOWER KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY ZONE 152
MARINE...GALES...121 130 132 150 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS...101 111 121 145

29 MAY 11