Gale Warning 345, NWS Anchorage, AK

952 
FZAK51 PAFC 080002
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY.
$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 35 KT NEAR THE COAST EAST 
OF SAINT MONTAGUE ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT GUSTING 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT 
THIS EVENING. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SINGLE MASSIVE STORM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE TODAY FROM THE BERING SEA TO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BOTTOMED OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND 935 MB OVERNIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA...AND IS NOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE VERY STRONG ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT BROUGHT
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA YESTERDAY...AND
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COAST.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN THOSE AREAS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
INLAND...AND THE MAIN THREAT NOW IS ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER ITSELF.

FURTHER EAST...STRONG FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
MORNING IS RAPIDLY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS. ENHANCEMENT FROM TERRAIN FUNNELING IS MOST
PRONOUNCED IN WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE MAJOR BERING LOW BY
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THIS MORNING WITH A
SLIGHTLY FASTER...MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...A POWERFUL FRONT IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM WHILE 50
MPH WINDS HAVE OCCURRED NEAR HOMER. MEANWHILE STEADY PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND STEADY SNOW IS FALLING FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ACROSS BOTH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS
THIS FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.  MEANWHILE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED.

.SOUTHWEST...THE BERING LOW WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY REGION
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD. A POWERFUL 150 KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION BY MID MORNING BRINGING STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.ALEUTIANS...
THE POTENT BERING LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS LOW...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
IMPACT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH A 76 MPH GUST REPORTED AT ST GEORGE
THIS MORNING. AS THE BERING LOW MOVES EASTWARD...THIS LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING TODAY AND BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS WELL. EXPECT GALE FORCE AND
STORM FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING EVEN BEHIND THIS LOW
INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.  AS A RESULT A SERIES OF LOWS
WILL MOVE FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125 155 161
         WINTER STORM WARNING...145
         BLIZZARD WARNING...131
MARINE...STORM...120 160 165 170 172 179 180 185
         GALE...125 129 130 132 138 141 150 155 171 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN/AMD APR 11