Hurricane Force Wind Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

293 
FZAK62 PAFC 071152
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080300-
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 939 MB LOW AT 58N 175W MOVES TO 61N 169W AT 951 MB BY THU
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INLAND THU NIGHT NEAR 62N 166W.

$$

PKZ411-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW TO NW WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
36 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 37 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 31 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 26 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING BETTER WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OUT WEST. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL BE BASED ON THE
GFS OUT WEST AND THE NAM IN THE EAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH THE MASSIVE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER.

THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA HAS DEEPENED INTO THE 930S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HOOPER BAY THU EVENING. A WIDE RANGE
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RAPID GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM. AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 170 KT IS
CURVING FROM THE TROPICS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE SURFACE
LOW LIES BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WHICH IS THE SWEET
SPOT FOR DYNAMIC LIFT.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE SW
COAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN MOVES INTO COOK INLET/MATSU THU
AFTERNOON AND INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE PANHANDLE THU NIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE VERIFYING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS.

.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW WILL REACH
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT. A COPIOUS MOISTURE SUPPLY AND A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SUSITNA
VALLEY..ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND MUCH OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THU. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW IN
THE INTERIOR REGIONS WHILE A MIX IS EXPECTED IN REGIONS ALONG THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THIS STRONG JET SHOULD CAUSE DOWNSLOPING AND LIMIT
PRECIPITATION IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTHWESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ZONES 101 AND 125 BEGINNING THU MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHWEST... BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD END ALONG THE BRISTOL
BAY COAST AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND AND COLDER AIR HOLDS ON. WARNING LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL POSSIBLY PUSH ICE ONSHORE ALONG
THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA SHORES WHILE STRONG WINDS MAY
CAUSE BEACH EROSION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ENDED THIS MORNING OVER
SAINT PAUL ISLAND AS TEMPS WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER THEY
APPEAR TO BE IN FOR A BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR 90 MPH
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORNING. WARNING
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION AS A SERIES OF LOWS PROGRESS ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO
THE GULF. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
WITH CONTINUING THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101 125 181 185 187 195
         BLIZZARD WARNING...131 155 161
MARINE...HURRICANE...179 185

         STORM...120 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 180
         GALE...120 125 129 130 132 138 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

AKZ161-155-072100-

...DANGEROUS ICE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG ALASKA WEST COAST...

A VERY STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS SEA ICE CONDITIONS FROM BRISTOL BAY TO POINT HOPE. DETAILED
GRAPHICS OF THE IMPACTED ICE AREAS HAVE BEEN POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE
AT HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/ICEGRAPHICS.PHP.

IN BRISTOL BAY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SMALL FLOES OF ICE TO PUSH
ONTO BEACHES FROM DILLINGHAM TO TOGIAK. BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG NUSHAGAK BAY AND TOGIAK BAY.

FROM CAPE NEWENHAM TO TOKSOOK BAY ICE SHOVES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS ICE WILL BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES
THICK. SMALLER ICE FLOES MOVING ONSHORE MAY BE UP TO 12 INCHES THICK.

THIS SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE NEXT STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED AT 1 PM THURSDAY.