Gale Warning 299, NWS Anchorage, AK

037 
FZAK51 PAFC 311442 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

UPDATED ZONES 125 129 130 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 996 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
640 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
640 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
640 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
640 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312349
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1004 MB LOW 40 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE GULF ON SAT.
$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KTS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...3 FT W
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
212 PM AKDT WED MAR 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FOCUS TODAY IS ON ANCHORAGE AND
VICINITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FEATURES OF CONCERN ARE ALL VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FALLING
ACROSS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION BUT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE ADVECTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
TO THE COOK INLET CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL. SNOW IS FALLING JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. A SEPARATE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING NORTHWEST
ALASKA AND BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE POPULATION CENTER OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

OUT WEST THERE IS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET IS SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH SO THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO MAJOR
STORMS THREATENING ALASKA...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z NAM DID NOT DIG TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. HOWEVER THE
18Z RUN IS NOW ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION WHICH IS KEY TO WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A TWO STAGE SNOW EVENT FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. THERE ARE OTHER MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WHICH
AFFECT THE EXACT TIMING OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...BUT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR. BEYOND
THIS EVENT...THE GFS IS TRENDING FASTER WITH MAJOR LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT PREFER TO HOLD
WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF POSITION FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EXPECT THE FIRST PERIOD OF SNOW TO BEGIN
BY MID EVENING FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND UP THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY (MAINLY EAST OF THE PARKS
HIGHWAY) AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2 OR 3 HOURS OF
MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY. THIS WILL HELP OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY
WARM (ABOVE FREEZING) SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE START SO THAT
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NOT LONG AFTER SNOWFALL BEGINS.
THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL WASH OUT AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE ANCHORAGE
AREA AROUND 3AM SO SNOW SHOULD LIGHTEN UP FOR A WHILE. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL THEN ARRIVE A FEW
HOURS LATER...LIKELY INTENSIFYING JUST IN TIME FOR THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
FIRST ONE. HOWEVER...WITH ANCHORAGE RIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH ANY SMALL CHANGE IN THE TROUGH POSITION COULD
DRAMATICALLY CHANGE RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. IF THE CURRENT
MODELS ARE CORRECT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS TROUGH THEN SNOWFALL
WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND FINE-TUNE SNOW
AMOUNTS AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. IN ANY CASE...PLAN TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY SINCE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SO MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
WITH BOTH TROUGH WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FIRST TROUGH WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THIS EVENING SO SNOW WILL MOSTLY COME TO AN END ALONG THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST
ALASKA COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. MAJOR PACIFIC STORM WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH JUST A FEW WEAK SURFACE LOWS IN THE
REGION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN UNTIL THE PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE
GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE NOT DEALING WITH THE PATTERN IN
THE LONG TERM VERY WELL. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH FEATURES IN THE FAST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC AND
THUS ARE PRODUCING SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND SEEM TO
FILTER OUT SOME OF THE "NOISE" IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS.

CURRENT FORECAST STICKS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF ON SUNDAY THAT MOVES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY LATE MONDAY...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA/WESTERN ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HPC GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THUS IS PROBABLY REASONABLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB/BL MAR 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1000 PM AKDT WED MAR 30 2011

AKZ101-111-311000-

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM
ANCHORAGE TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

THE LATEST THINKING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SNOW TONIGHT IS THAT
THE MAIN ONSET OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT WITH
JUST SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STEADY
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES BY THE BEGINNING OF RUSH HOUR
IS STILL REASONABLE. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DURING THE MORNING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 8
INCHES OVER THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY AREAS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ON THIS IMPENDING SNOWFALL
EVENT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1250 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

AKZ101-111-311330-

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...

THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. RAIN
WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH NOON TODAY OVER
THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY AREAS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ON THIS IMPENDING SNOWFALL
EVENT.