Brisk Wind Advisory 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

050 
FZAK52 PAFC 311150
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING. A 967 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO 150 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BERING SIDE...VARIABLE 10 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
212 PM AKDT WED MAR 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FOCUS TODAY IS ON ANCHORAGE AND
VICINITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FEATURES OF CONCERN ARE ALL VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FALLING
ACROSS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION BUT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE ADVECTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
TO THE COOK INLET CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL. SNOW IS FALLING JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. A SEPARATE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING NORTHWEST
ALASKA AND BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALL COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE POPULATION CENTER OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

OUT WEST THERE IS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET IS SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH SO THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO MAJOR
STORMS THREATENING ALASKA...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z NAM DID NOT DIG TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. HOWEVER THE
18Z RUN IS NOW ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION WHICH IS KEY TO WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A TWO STAGE SNOW EVENT FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. THERE ARE OTHER MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WHICH
AFFECT THE EXACT TIMING OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT...BUT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR. BEYOND
THIS EVENT...THE GFS IS TRENDING FASTER WITH MAJOR LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT PREFER TO HOLD
WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF POSITION FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EXPECT THE FIRST PERIOD OF SNOW TO BEGIN
BY MID EVENING FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND UP THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY (MAINLY EAST OF THE PARKS
HIGHWAY) AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 2 OR 3 HOURS OF
MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY. THIS WILL HELP OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY
WARM (ABOVE FREEZING) SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE START SO THAT
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NOT LONG AFTER SNOWFALL BEGINS.
THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL WASH OUT AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE ANCHORAGE
AREA AROUND 3AM SO SNOW SHOULD LIGHTEN UP FOR A WHILE. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL THEN ARRIVE A FEW
HOURS LATER...LIKELY INTENSIFYING JUST IN TIME FOR THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
FIRST ONE. HOWEVER...WITH ANCHORAGE RIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH ANY SMALL CHANGE IN THE TROUGH POSITION COULD
DRAMATICALLY CHANGE RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. IF THE CURRENT
MODELS ARE CORRECT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS TROUGH THEN SNOWFALL
WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AND CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND FINE-TUNE SNOW
AMOUNTS AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. IN ANY CASE...PLAN TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY SINCE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SO MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
WITH BOTH TROUGH WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. A TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FIRST TROUGH WILL EXIT SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THIS EVENING SO SNOW WILL MOSTLY COME TO AN END ALONG THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST
ALASKA COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. MAJOR PACIFIC STORM WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH JUST A FEW WEAK SURFACE LOWS IN THE
REGION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN UNTIL THE PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE
GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE NOT DEALING WITH THE PATTERN IN
THE LONG TERM VERY WELL. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH FEATURES IN THE FAST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC AND
THUS ARE PRODUCING SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND SEEM TO
FILTER OUT SOME OF THE "NOISE" IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS.

CURRENT FORECAST STICKS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF ON SUNDAY THAT MOVES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY LATE MONDAY...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA/WESTERN ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HPC GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THUS IS PROBABLY REASONABLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB/BL MAR 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKDT WED MAR 30 2011

AKZ101-111-310300-

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM
ANCHORAGE TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM ANCHORAGE TO
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF SNOWFALL
AS WELL AS THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO
PRIMARY PERIODS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID EVENING AND INTENSIFY BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY THEN LIGHTEN
UP OVERNIGHT BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW RE-DEVELOPS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT
AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THESE AMOUNTS
ARE PRELIMINARY AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ON THIS IMPENDING SNOWFALL
EVENT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT WED MAR 30 2011

AKZ101-111-310300-

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM
ANCHORAGE TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM ANCHORAGE TO
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF SNOWFALL
AS WELL AS THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO
PRIMARY PERIODS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID EVENING AND INTENSIFY BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY THEN LIGHTEN
UP OVERNIGHT BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW RE-DEVELOPS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT
AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THESE AMOUNTS
ARE PRELIMINARY AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR HTTP://PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ON THIS IMPENDING SNOWFALL
EVENT.