Gale Warning 251, NWS Anchorage, AK

889 
FZAK62 PAFC 181152
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-190400-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 949 MB LOW NEAR 54N 172E WEAKENS TO 969 MB NEAR 59N 171E SAT
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING IN PLACE AND DISSIPATING LATE SAT NIGHT. A
980 MB LOW NEAR 48N 174W LATE FRI NIGHT STRENGTHENS TO 962 MB NEAR
54N 169W SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 966 MB NEAR 59N
167W LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-190400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 TO 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-190400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-190400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. 
.SAT...W OF 176W...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
E OF 176W...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-190400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$

252 
FZAK62 PAFC 182311
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191500-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 MB LOW NEAR 57N 173E WILL MOVE TO 60N 171E AND WEAKEN TO 975 MB
SAT AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 46N 175W FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 53N
169W AT 963 MB SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 63N 168W AT 975 MB SUN. 
$$

PKZ411-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S TO W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...EAST OF 176W...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WEST OF 176W...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 35 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  
$$

497 
FZAK62 PAFC 191147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR 60N 172E WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATE SAT NIGHT. A 978 MB LOW NEAR 45N 176W WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB NEAR 54N 167W SAT EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY 
WEAKEN TO 977 MB NEAR 65N 171W LATE SUN NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL MOVE TO 56N 174E AT 981 MB LATE SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N OF 56N...SE WIND 20 KT. S OF 56N...SW WIND
35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N OF 56N...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S OF 56N...W 
WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W OF 175W...NW WIND 20 KT. E OF 175W...E WIND
25 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT...BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF SAINT
PAUL ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CURRENT
WEATHER FEATURES INCLUDING THE VERY LARGE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING.
THE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN GIVING MODELS FITS IS A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THIS MAIN LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS LOW. AT THIS TIME
THE THINKING IS THAT THE GFS HAS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR IT AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN IN CATCH UP MODE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE MAIN IMPACT
IS THAT THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A FASTER AND DEEPER LOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA COAST
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF. WHEN ONE LOOKS AT THE SURFACE
MAP OR A SATELLITE IMAGE THE FEATURE THAT JUMPS OUT THE MOST IS THE
LARGE LOW APPROACHING ATTU THAT IS IN THE MID 930S MB. THIS POWERFUL
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA FRI NIGHT. THE STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE.

THE WEATHER MAKING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ARE A BIT MORE SUBTLE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER COOK INLET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
A LARGE LOW BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AREAS. IT GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN IN
THIS AREA SATURDAY AS A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A STRONG LOW THAT COULD PRODUCE STORM FORCE
WINDS BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK MAKE IT A
SYSTEM THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.
THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE COOK INLET REGION IS
MORE COMPLEX SINCE SOME VERY SUBTLE FEATURES ARE CREATING SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER DIFFERENCES. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY IS
SITTING IN SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THERE IS SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
TALKEETNA...AND THE LINE BETWEEN THE TWO IS QUITE SHARP. THIS
DEFORMATION AREA BRINGING THE SNOW TO THE AREA IS OSCILLATING A BIT
AS IT SLOWLY WRINGS THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAKENS.
THIS ALSO BRINGS UP THE QUESTION ABOUT AREAS OF FOG AND OR STRATUS
OVER ANCHORAGE AND COOK INLET AS WELL AS TH SUSITNA VALLEY AS THIS
SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVERHEAD. SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS CAN CAUSE
THE GRADIENT TO STAGNATE AND THE DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION CAN SUPPORT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ON THE OTHER HAND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
IN THE NORTHWEST SUSITNA VALLEY AND AREAS WESTWARD THAT MIGHT SIGNAL
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WHERE THE SNOW TODAY
MIGHT TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION STOPS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING
SEA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL MEAN A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 176 179 180.
         STORM 175 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 11