Gale Warning 283, NWS Anchorage, AK

901 
FZAK52 PAFC 181200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190300-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 949 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WEAKENS TO 969 MB 400 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA SAT MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING IN PLACE AND DISSIPATING
LATE SAT NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF ADAK LATE FRI NIGHT
STRENGTHENS TO 962 MB 100 NM NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR SAT AFTERNOON
AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 966 MB 160 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL
ISLAND LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-190300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-190300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-190300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-190300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT . SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-190300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-190300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-190300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-190300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...34 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SIDE...30 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...BERING SIDE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-190300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 29 FT BERING SIDE...43 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT BERING SIDE...32 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-190300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 40 FT EXCEPT 31 FT FROM SHEMYA W. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-190300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-190300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CURRENT
WEATHER FEATURES INCLUDING THE VERY LARGE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING.
THE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN GIVING MODELS FITS IS A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THIS MAIN LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
VERY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS LOW. AT THIS TIME
THE THINKING IS THAT THE GFS HAS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR IT AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN IN CATCH UP MODE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE MAIN IMPACT
IS THAT THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A FASTER AND DEEPER LOW THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA COAST
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF. WHEN ONE LOOKS AT THE SURFACE
MAP OR A SATELLITE IMAGE THE FEATURE THAT JUMPS OUT THE MOST IS THE
LARGE LOW APPROACHING ATTU THAT IS IN THE MID 930S MB. THIS POWERFUL
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA FRI NIGHT. THE STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE.

THE WEATHER MAKING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
ARE A BIT MORE SUBTLE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER COOK INLET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
A LARGE LOW BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AREAS. IT GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN IN
THIS AREA SATURDAY AS A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A STRONG LOW THAT COULD PRODUCE STORM FORCE
WINDS BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK MAKE IT A
SYSTEM THAT WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING.
THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE COOK INLET REGION IS
MORE COMPLEX SINCE SOME VERY SUBTLE FEATURES ARE CREATING SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER DIFFERENCES. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY IS
SITTING IN SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THERE IS SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
TALKEETNA...AND THE LINE BETWEEN THE TWO IS QUITE SHARP. THIS
DEFORMATION AREA BRINGING THE SNOW TO THE AREA IS OSCILLATING A BIT
AS IT SLOWLY WRINGS THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAKENS.
THIS ALSO BRINGS UP THE QUESTION ABOUT AREAS OF FOG AND OR STRATUS
OVER ANCHORAGE AND COOK INLET AS WELL AS TH SUSITNA VALLEY AS THIS
SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVERHEAD. SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS CAN CAUSE
THE GRADIENT TO STAGNATE AND THE DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION CAN SUPPORT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ON THE OTHER HAND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
IN THE NORTHWEST SUSITNA VALLEY AND AREAS WESTWARD THAT MIGHT SIGNAL
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION WHERE THE SNOW TODAY
MIGHT TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION STOPS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING
SEA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL MEAN A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 176 179 180.
         STORM 175 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 11